Geopolitical escalation: US naval strategy in Strait of Hormuz risks systemic conflict amid regional power vacuums and resource control

Indigenous and local communities in the Gulf have historically managed maritime resources through customary laws and tribal governance, which prioritize collective stewardship over militarized control. These systems were systematically dismantled by colonial powers and modern nation-states, yet their principles—such as shared access to fishing grounds—offer alternatives to the current securitization of the Strait. The exclusion of these voices from security narratives reflects a broader erasure of indigenous agency in shaping regional stability.

The Strait of Hormuz has been a flashpoint since the 1950s, when Western powers sought to secure oil supplies during the Cold War, leading to the establishment of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. The 1953 coup in Iran, orchestrated by the US and UK, destabilized the region and set a precedent for external interference in sovereign affairs. The Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988) and subsequent tanker wars demonstrated how resource competition and arms races can spiral into prolonged conflict, a pattern repeating today with drone strikes and cyber warfare.

Oman’s 'positive neutrality' policy, which avoids military alliances while engaging in dialogue with all regional actors, contrasts sharply with the US-led militarization of the Strait. Iranian proposals for a 'Hormuz Security Coalition'—inclusive of all littoral states—challenge the narrative of the Strait as a US-dominated chokepoint. Gulf Arab states, while dependent on US security guarantees, also engage in backchannel diplomacy with Iran, reflecting a pragmatic approach that prioritizes economic stability over confrontation.

Maritime choke points like the Strait of Hormuz are critical nodes in global energy infrastructure, with 20–30% of the world’s oil passing through daily, making them high-value targets for asymmetric warfare. Studies on conflict escalation in maritime environments show that miscalculations—such as the 1988 downing of Iran Air Flight 655 by the US Navy—can trigger decades-long cycles of retaliation. Environmental risks, including oil spills from military engagements (e.g., during the Iran-Iraq War), have long-term ecological and economic consequences that are rarely quantified in strategic assessments.

The Strait of Hormuz holds deep spiritual significance in Islamic and pre-Islamic traditions, often depicted in poetry and art as a symbol of both divine bounty and geopolitical fragility. Traditional Gulf pearl divers and fishermen, whose livelihoods depend on the Strait’s ecological health, embody a spiritual relationship with the sea that contrasts with the extractive logic of modern militarism. Contemporary artists in Iran and the Gulf have used murals and digital media to critique the militarization of the Strait, framing it as a violation of sacred space.

Scenario modeling suggests that a US-led escort mission could trigger a regional arms race, with Iran and Gulf states accelerating missile and drone programs, increasing the risk of accidental escalation. Alternative futures include a phased withdrawal of foreign fleets in favor of a regional security framework, modeled after the ASEAN-led approaches to the South China Sea. Climate change exacerbates risks by increasing energy demand and stressing water resources, which could further destabilize littoral states and heighten competition over the Strait.

Civil society groups in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iran—including women’s organizations and labor unions—have long opposed foreign military presence, framing it as a threat to democracy and economic justice. Sanctions have devastated civilian infrastructure in Iran, disproportionately affecting marginalized groups like the Ahwazi Arabs and Baloch communities, yet their experiences are rarely centered in security debates. Migrant workers in the Gulf, who form the backbone of the maritime economy, are often excluded from discussions on security, despite bearing the brunt of militarization and labor exploitation.