Gulf Coast recreational fishing pressures exposed: Machine learning reveals systemic gaps in fisheries governance and equity

Indigenous fishers in the Gulf Coast, including the United Houma Nation and Choctaw communities, have practiced sustainable rotational fishing for generations, yet their knowledge is excluded from mainstream fisheries science. Their exclusion reflects a broader pattern where traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) is dismissed as 'anecdotal' while AI-driven data is treated as objective, despite its reliance on biased historical datasets. Reviving TEK could provide low-cost, culturally grounded solutions to overfishing, as seen in the revival of *tabu* systems in Fiji and Hawaii.

The Gulf Coast's fisheries crisis is rooted in 19th-century colonial land grabs that dispossessed Indigenous and Black fishing communities, replacing communal governance with privatized access. The 1976 Magnuson-Stevens Act further entrenched recreational fishing privileges by prioritizing sportfishing in allocation decisions, a policy that mirrored the enclosure of common lands during the Industrial Revolution. Historical parallels include the enclosure of the English commons and the privatization of Pacific Northwest salmon fisheries, where sportfishing lobbies similarly shaped policy.

In Norway, recreational anglers are subject to strict quotas and seasonal bans, with revenue from licenses funding community-based conservation—a model that could reduce pressure on Gulf Coast stocks. In New Zealand, Māori co-management of fisheries (e.g., *mātaitai* reserves) demonstrates how Indigenous governance can coexist with recreational fishing while ensuring ecological resilience. The Gulf Coast's failure to adopt such models reflects a cultural bias toward individualism and short-term economic gains over collective stewardship.

Recreational fishing in the Gulf Coast contributes up to 40% of total fishing mortality for species like red snapper, yet is underrepresented in stock assessments due to data gaps and methodological biases favoring commercial fleets. Machine learning tools, while useful for filling data gaps, risk reproducing these biases by training on historical recreational catch data that overrepresent wealthy anglers. Scientific consensus supports ecosystem-based management, but this is undermined by the political economy of fisheries science, which prioritizes extractive industries.

For Gulf Coast communities, fishing is not merely an economic activity but a spiritual and cultural practice tied to ancestral traditions and seasonal rhythms, as reflected in Creole zydeco lyrics and Choctaw oral histories. The commodification of fishing as a 'sport' severs this connection, reducing marine life to trophies and ecosystems to backdrops for leisure. Artistic movements like the Gulf Coast's 'Cajun Renaissance' have critiqued this extractivist mindset, advocating for a return to relational stewardship.

Scenario modeling suggests that without radical governance reform, Gulf Coast recreational fishing could collapse key species like red snapper within 20 years, with cascading effects on coastal economies and food security. Alternative futures include community-led marine reserves (e.g., inspired by the United Houma Nation's proposals) and AI-driven dynamic licensing that adjusts quotas based on real-time ecosystem data. The current trajectory mirrors past collapses in the North Atlantic cod fishery, where recreational fishing was a minor but unregulated contributor to systemic failure.

Subsistence fishers, predominantly Black and Indigenous, are systematically excluded from fisheries governance despite bearing the brunt of recreational fishing's ecological and economic impacts. Their exclusion is reinforced by the lack of data on their catches, as well as racist stereotypes that portray them as 'poachers' while recreational anglers are framed as 'conservationists.' The Gulf Coast's 'sportfishing elite'—often wealthy white retirees—lobby for policies that protect their access while marginalizing local fishers, echoing global patterns of environmental racism.