Iran’s Strait of Hormuz stance reflects geopolitical leverage amid global energy transit vulnerabilities and historical maritime disputes

Indigenous and traditional knowledge systems along the Persian Gulf—rooted in Bedouin navigation, pearl diving, and seasonal trade—frame the Strait as a living ecosystem requiring collective stewardship, not militarisation. Iranian fishermen and Omani sailors historically resolved disputes through oral agreements and seasonal access rights, contrasting with the modern state-centric model. These practices are eroded by industrial shipping and state security apparatuses, yet offer lessons in adaptive governance for shared waterways.

The Strait’s geopolitical salience dates to the 19th-century British colonial policy of 'gunboat diplomacy,' which established the Gulf as a British sphere of influence and later shaped post-colonial state borders. The 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War saw the Strait’s first major militarisation, with Iraq targeting Iranian oil exports and Iran retaliating by mining the waterway—a precedent for today’s 'maximum pressure' tactics. The 2015 JCPOA briefly de-escalated tensions, but its collapse under Trump’s administration revived the same cycle of sanctions and retaliation, demonstrating the Strait’s role as a pressure valve for broader geopolitical conflicts.

In Southeast Asia, the Malacca Strait—another critical chokepoint—is governed by the 2004 *Malacca Straits Patrols*, a multilateral framework involving Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand that prioritises anti-piracy over state posturing. China’s 2013 'Maritime Silk Road' initiative proposed joint Gulf-China infrastructure projects, offering an alternative to US-led naval dominance, though these have been stymied by sanctions and regional rivalries. African and Latin American states, heavily reliant on Gulf oil, often view the Strait’s militarisation as a form of 'energy colonialism,' where transit fees and insurance costs disproportionately burden Global South economies.

The Strait’s 21-mile width at its narrowest point creates a natural vulnerability to blockades, with 20-30% of global oil trade passing through—a figure that drops to 40% during peak demand periods, exacerbating price volatility. Satellite data shows a 300% increase in Iranian naval exercises near the Strait since 2018, correlating with US sanctions and the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group. Climate change further strains the Strait, as rising temperatures increase the frequency of 'red tide' algal blooms that disrupt shipping, adding ecological risks to geopolitical ones.

Persian poetry and Gulf oral traditions depict the Strait as a liminal space between land and sea, where sovereignty is not absolute but negotiated through tides and trade winds—echoing Sufi concepts of *fana* (annihilation of ego) in collective governance. Iranian filmmaker Abbas Kiarostami’s *Taste of Cherry* (1997) subtly critiques the militarisation of landscapes, framing the earth itself as a contested body. In Oman, the annual *Khareef* festival celebrates the monsoon winds that historically guided dhows through the Strait, symbolising resilience against modern statecraft.

Scenario modelling by the *International Energy Agency* suggests that a prolonged Strait blockade could trigger a 15-20% spike in global oil prices, with cascading effects on food security and inflation, particularly in Africa and South Asia. A 'Green Strait' proposal—jointly managed by Gulf states and international partners—could redirect transit revenues into renewable energy infrastructure, reducing reliance on fossil fuel chokepoints. AI-driven maritime surveillance (e.g., Iran’s 'Sayyam' system) risks escalating an arms race, but also offers opportunities for automated conflict de-escalation via real-time data sharing.

Local fishermen and port workers in Bandar Abbas and Dubai bear the brunt of militarisation, facing restricted access to fishing grounds and increased pollution from naval exercises. Women in Gulf port cities, historically key players in pearl diving and trade, are sidelined in modern security narratives despite their deep knowledge of maritime ecosystems. Migrant laborers—comprising 90% of the UAE’s workforce—are excluded from decision-making yet face heightened risks during conflicts, as seen in the 2019 drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities that disrupted global supply chains.