Spain-China ties deepen amid EU-China tensions: Sánchez’s Beijing visit masks structural fragility and geopolitical realignment

Spain’s economic ‘stability’ narrative erases the historical and ongoing exploitation of indigenous communities in Latin America, whose resources (e.g., lithium, copper) are now being extracted to fuel both Spain’s green transition and China’s industrial growth. The Manila galleon trade’s legacy—where indigenous Filipino labor was coerced to supply silver to China—parallels today’s extractive dynamics in Spain’s renewable energy sector, where Chinese firms dominate supply chains with minimal local benefit. Indigenous knowledge systems, such as Spain’s *dehesa* agroforestry or China’s *feng shui* land-use practices, are ignored in favor of technocratic economic models that prioritize short-term growth over ecological balance.

The ‘stable, predictable country’ framing ignores Spain’s cyclical economic crises, from the 16th-century silver inflation crisis to the 2008 housing bubble collapse, which were all tied to external dependencies (e.g., colonial extraction, EU austerity). China’s engagement with Spain today mirrors its historical tributary relationships with Southeast Asian kingdoms, where economic ties were framed as ‘mutual benefit’ but often resulted in asymmetric power dynamics. The 1978 Spanish Constitution’s neoliberal turn under globalization set the stage for today’s over-reliance on foreign capital, a pattern repeated across post-colonial nations.

In China, Sánchez’s visit is contextualized within the broader ‘Belt and Road Initiative,’ where ‘stability’ is a euphemism for predictability in trade flows and infrastructure development, often at the expense of local sovereignty. Spanish regional governments, particularly in Catalonia, view China through a lens of cultural and linguistic fragmentation, seeing opportunities in trade but also threats to local industries. In Africa, where both Spain and China compete for influence, the visit is seen as a reminder of Spain’s declining soft power compared to China’s infrastructure-led diplomacy.

Economic models used to justify Spain’s engagement with China (e.g., input-output tables, gravity models of trade) systematically underestimate the risks of over-reliance on a single trade partner, as seen in the 2020 semiconductor shortage. Studies on supply chain resilience (e.g., from the *Journal of Cleaner Production*) show that Spain’s renewable energy sector is vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese solar panel and battery supply chains, yet these risks are omitted from diplomatic narratives. The ‘sense of justice’ rhetoric lacks empirical grounding, as neither country has ratified ILO Convention 169 on indigenous rights, despite operating in regions with indigenous land claims.

Artistically, the visit reflects a tension between Spain’s Catholic and Moorish heritage (e.g., the Alhambra’s geometric patterns) and China’s Confucian-Buddhist worldview, where harmony is prioritized over individual rights. The ‘stability’ narrative resonates with Spain’s *duende* cultural ethos—a blend of passion and fatalism—but obscures the creative destruction of local industries by Chinese competition. In China, the visit is framed through *qi* (vital energy) diplomacy, where economic ties are seen as a flow of energy between nations, but this metaphor ignores the extractive costs of such flows.

Scenario modeling by the *European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training* suggests Spain’s over-reliance on China could lead to a ‘middle-income trap’ by 2035, where high-tech industries fail to emerge due to lack of domestic innovation. Alternative futures include a ‘Green Silk Road’ where Spain leverages its renewable energy potential to become a hub for EU-China green trade, but this requires decoupling from Chinese state-owned enterprises and investing in local supply chains. The visit’s emphasis on ‘predictability’ ignores the accelerating climate risks (e.g., droughts disrupting agriculture) that could destabilize Spain’s economic model.

Spanish labor unions (e.g., *Comisiones Obreras*) warn that Chinese investments in ports like Valencia and energy grids are leading to job precarity and union-busting, yet their voices are excluded from diplomatic narratives. In China, Uyghur and Tibetan activists highlight how economic ties with Spain are built on the backs of oppressed minorities, but their perspectives are systematically silenced in state-controlled media. Migrant workers in Spain’s logistics sector (many from Latin America and North Africa) face exploitation in warehouses supplying Chinese e-commerce giants like Shein, yet their struggles are absent from the ‘stable country’ framing.