Systemic risks of industrial magma drilling: Forecasting failures vs. deepening geological instability in volcanic systems

Indigenous communities in volcanic regions—such as the Quechua in the Andes or the Toraja in Sulawesi—possess millennia-old systems for monitoring magma behavior through animal behavior, plant changes, and ancestral communication with volcanoes. These practices are dismissed as 'anecdotal' by Western science, despite evidence that indigenous land management reduces disaster risks. The erasure of these systems reflects a broader pattern of epistemicide, where traditional knowledge is invalidated to justify industrial extraction.

The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens followed decades of logging and geothermal exploration, demonstrating how industrial activity can prime volcanic systems for instability. Similarly, the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland was exacerbated by glacial melt from climate change, itself driven by industrial emissions—a feedback loop mainstream narratives ignore. Historical records from Java (18th century) and Iceland (17th century) show that human settlements near volcanoes often collapsed when drilling or mining disrupted subsurface pressures.

In Māori cosmology, volcanoes (*ngā maunga*) are ancestors whose anger (*hūpē*) is provoked by disrespect, a concept echoed in Hawaiian *pele* traditions where drilling is seen as a violation of *kapu* (sacred law). Japanese *shinbutsu-shūgō* traditions view mountains as deities (*kami*) requiring offerings before disturbance, a practice that aligns with modern calls for 'sacred ecology.' These frameworks contrast with Western utilitarian views, which frame magma as a commodity to be exploited for energy or data.

Drilling into magma chambers risks triggering phreatic eruptions by depressurizing superheated fluids, as seen in Iceland’s 2017 Krafla Magma Testbed experiment, which narrowly avoided a blowout. Seismic tomography studies show that industrial vibrations can alter magma pathways, yet risk assessments rarely model these interactions. Peer-reviewed research highlights that long-term magma monitoring—rather than invasive drilling—yields more reliable eruption forecasts, but this is underfunded compared to extractive projects.

Artists like Andy Goldsworthy have used volcanic landscapes to explore impermanence and human hubris, while Japanese *ukiyo-e* prints of Mount Fuji depict its sacred duality as both destroyer and provider. Spiritual traditions in Bali (*Tri Hita Karana*) and Hawaii (*Hoʻoponopono*) frame volcanic land as a living entity requiring balance, a perspective that could inform ethical drilling regulations. These artistic and spiritual framings challenge the extractive mindset by centering reciprocity over domination.

Scenario modelling by the USGS and IPCC suggests that by 2050, increased geothermal drilling in volcanic zones could raise eruption probabilities by 15-30% in high-risk regions like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Climate change—accelerating glacial melt and sea-level rise—will further destabilize volcanic systems, creating compounding risks that current policies ignore. Forward-looking policies must integrate indigenous early-warning systems and adaptive zoning laws to prevent future disasters.

Women in volcanic communities—such as those in the Philippines’ Taal Volcano region—are disproportionately affected by evacuations and resource scarcity, yet their leadership in disaster response is often overlooked. In Indonesia, the *Mbah Dukun* (traditional healers) of Java are sidelined despite their role in community preparedness, while state agencies prioritize corporate geothermal projects. Global South scientists, who often lack funding for indigenous-led research, are excluded from high-impact publications that shape policy.