Geopolitical tensions and fossil fuel dependency drive oil price surge amid coordinated attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure

Indigenous and traditional communities in the Gulf—including Bedouin tribes in Qatar, UAE, and Iran—have long contested the encroachment of fossil fuel infrastructure on ancestral lands, with their knowledge systems prioritising water conservation and seasonal migration disrupted by LNG terminals and gasfields. Their resistance is often criminalised or ignored in mainstream energy narratives, despite their role in preserving ecosystems that mitigate climate impacts. The attacks on energy facilities also disproportionately affect these communities, who bear the brunt of pollution and displacement without compensation.

The Gulf’s energy conflicts are rooted in 20th-century colonial oil concessions (e.g., Anglo-Persian Oil Company’s 1908 discovery in Iran) and the 1973 oil embargo, which cemented the region’s role as a global energy chokepoint. The Iran-Iraq War (1980–88) and Gulf War (1990–91) established a precedent for energy infrastructure as military targets, while the 2003 Iraq War and subsequent sanctions further destabilised regional energy flows. The current attacks echo the 2019 Abqaiq drone strikes, revealing a pattern of asymmetric warfare tied to unresolved geopolitical grievances.

In Latin America, energy conflicts (e.g., Bolivia’s 2003 gas wars) have similarly pitted indigenous rights against state-led extraction, while in Nigeria, oil infrastructure sabotage reflects decades of environmental degradation and corporate impunity. Asian perspectives often frame Gulf energy instability through the lens of supply chain vulnerabilities, with Japan and South Korea diversifying imports to mitigate risks. Across these contexts, the narrative of 'energy security' is contested, with calls for 'energy democracy' advocating for community control over resources.

Energy market volatility from geopolitical shocks is well-documented, with studies showing that even temporary disruptions in Gulf supply can trigger global price spikes due to the thinness of LNG markets and speculative trading. The attacks exacerbate existing supply chain bottlenecks, particularly in Asia, where LNG demand is projected to grow by 40% by 2030. Scientific consensus also highlights the paradox of investing in fossil fuel infrastructure amid climate targets, as stranded assets risk becoming liabilities in future decarbonisation scenarios.

Artists and poets in the Gulf have long used their work to critique the extractivist logic of energy states, with figures like Iraqi poet Dunya Mikhail and Emirati artist Hassan Sharif challenging the commodification of nature. In Iran, Sufi traditions frame oil wealth as a 'curse' that distorts spiritual values, while in Qatar, traditional pearl diving narratives contrast with the alienation of modern LNG economies. These perspectives highlight the cultural dissonance between hydrocarbon-driven development and indigenous worldviews that see land as sacred, not a resource.

Scenario modelling by the IEA and regional think tanks suggests that prolonged instability could accelerate the shift to renewables in Europe and Asia, but only if alternative supply chains (e.g., hydrogen, nuclear) are scaled rapidly. A 'managed decline' of Gulf oil dependence—paired with regional energy cooperation (e.g., Iran-Qatar gas swaps)—could reduce conflict triggers, but requires dismantling the geopolitical alliances that sustain fossil fuel extraction. Failure to act risks a 'resource curse 2.0,' where energy transitions are weaponised in new forms of economic warfare.

Migrant workers in Qatar’s Ras Laffan camp, who build and maintain LNG infrastructure, face deportation risks for speaking out about unsafe conditions, while environmental activists in the UAE are jailed for opposing gas projects. In Iran, Kurdish and Baloch communities bear the brunt of both state repression and energy infrastructure expansion, with their grievances erased in narratives of 'national security.' Women-led cooperatives in the Gulf, such as Bahrain’s 'Bahrain Women Association for Human Development,' advocate for just energy transitions but are sidelined in policy debates.