US blockade escalates Persian Gulf tensions: systemic risks to global energy security and geopolitical fragmentation

Indigenous Gulf communities, such as the Ajam of Bahrain or the Baloch of Oman, have historically relied on fishing and pearl diving, practices now disrupted by modern naval blockades and militarization. Their traditional ecological knowledge of marine ecosystems could inform sustainable maritime governance, yet their voices are excluded from geopolitical narratives. The erasure of these communities reflects a broader pattern where indigenous stewardship is sidelined in favor of state-centric security models. Their exclusion also obscures the cultural and economic costs of militarized choke points.

The Strait of Hormuz has been a contested maritime corridor since antiquity, from Persian and Arab naval dominance to Portuguese and British colonial control. The 1956 Suez Crisis and the 1980s 'Tanker War' during the Iran-Iraq War demonstrate how choke points become flashpoints in great power rivalries. US sanctions on Iran since 1979 have repeatedly weaponized maritime trade, creating a cycle of retaliation and escalation. This historical pattern reveals how energy security has been securitized, turning economic interdependence into a tool of coercion.

In South Asia, the concept of 'vasudhaiva kutumbakam' (the world is one family) underscores the shared vulnerability of energy-dependent economies, yet this interconnectedness is rarely reflected in Western policy responses. African and Latin American nations, often framed as 'third parties,' experience cascading effects like food price spikes due to energy disruptions, highlighting global interdependence. In East Asia, Confucian and Buddhist traditions emphasize harmony and balance, which could inform alternative models of maritime governance rooted in mutual benefit rather than dominance.

Scientific models of energy security emphasize the need for diversification and redundancy to mitigate choke point vulnerabilities, yet geopolitical narratives prioritize short-term market disruptions. Studies show that sanctions regimes often fail to achieve their stated goals while exacerbating humanitarian crises, as seen in Iraq during the 1990s. The IPCC’s warnings about climate-induced energy shocks underscore the urgency of transitioning away from fossil fuel dependence, which is rarely addressed in blockade discussions. Energy system resilience requires decentralized, renewable-based grids, not militarized supply chains.

Artistic expressions from the Gulf, such as Omani sea shanties or Iranian cinema depicting the human cost of sanctions, reveal the spiritual and cultural toll of militarized blockades. In South Asia, Sufi poetry often critiques the commodification of life, including energy resources, framing it as a violation of divine balance. Indigenous Australian and Māori traditions view the sea as a living ancestor, challenging the extractive logic that treats maritime routes as mere economic assets. These perspectives highlight the need for governance models that honor ecological and spiritual integrity.

Future scenarios suggest that escalating blockades could trigger a bifurcation of global energy markets, with China and India developing alternative routes via the Arctic or Central Asia. Climate change may render the Strait of Hormuz less critical as renewable energy reduces fossil fuel dependence, but this transition requires decades of coordinated policy. A systemic risk model would prioritize de-escalation, sanctions relief, and regional energy-sharing agreements to prevent cascading crises. Without these, the next decade could see increased naval conflicts and energy apartheid.

Marginalised voices include Iranian civilians facing sanctions-induced medicine shortages, Yemeni fishermen impacted by Saudi-led blockades, and Bahraini activists protesting US military bases. Women in Gulf port cities, who often manage local trade networks, are disproportionately affected by disruptions but are excluded from policy discussions. Migrant workers in the UAE and Qatar, who form 80% of the labor force, face heightened exploitation during energy crises. Their exclusion from narratives reinforces a system where economic stability is prioritized over human security.