Vietnam’s Biofuel Push: Systemic Energy Transition Amid Geopolitical Shocks and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

Indigenous and traditional farming systems in Vietnam’s highlands and Mekong Delta rely on polycultures, seasonal flooding, and seed-saving practices that enhance resilience to climate variability. These systems are being displaced by biofuel monocultures, which prioritize yield over ecological balance and community food sovereignty. The erosion of indigenous knowledge is not just an ecological loss but a cultural one, as farming practices are tied to language, ritual, and intergenerational transmission of ecological wisdom.

Vietnam’s energy transition is rooted in a century-long pattern of state-led industrialization, from French colonial rubber plantations to Soviet-style collectivization and now neoliberal green capitalism. The current biofuel mandate echoes the Doi Moi reforms of the 1980s, where structural adjustment policies prioritized export-oriented agriculture over subsistence farming. Historical parallels include the failed jatropha boom of the 2000s, which left smallholders indebted and degraded soils, and the U.S. military’s use of herbicides like Agent Orange to destroy Vietnam’s agricultural base during the Vietnam War.

In Latin America, biofuel expansion has similarly displaced indigenous communities and small farmers, leading to conflicts over land and water rights, as seen in Brazil’s sugarcane ethanol industry. African nations like Tanzania have experimented with biofuels only to face food shortages and rural displacement, prompting resistance from pastoralist and hunter-gatherer communities. Across Asia, traditional knowledge systems—such as the Balinese subak irrigation networks or the Filipino palay farming—offer models for decentralized, community-managed energy systems that could inform Vietnam’s transition.

Life cycle assessments of biofuels in Vietnam show that cassava-based ethanol has a net positive energy balance but high greenhouse gas emissions due to land-use change and fertilizer use. Studies indicate that biofuel expansion in the Mekong Delta could reduce rice production by up to 15%, threatening food security in a region already vulnerable to salinity intrusion from rising seas. Scientific consensus also highlights the trade-offs between biofuel production and biodiversity, particularly in areas like the U Minh Thuong National Park, a critical habitat for endangered species.

For many Vietnamese farmers, the land is not merely a resource but a sacred entity, tied to ancestor worship and communal identity. The displacement of traditional farming by industrial biofuel crops severs this spiritual connection, reducing the landscape to a commodity. Artists and poets in the Mekong Delta, such as the works of Bùi Giáng or the folk songs of the Khmer Krom, have long celebrated the rhythms of the river and the cyclical nature of agriculture—a perspective erased by the technocratic framing of biofuels as a 'solution.'

Scenario modelling suggests that Vietnam’s biofuel mandate could lead to a 20% increase in deforestation by 2030 if current trends continue, particularly in the Central Highlands where indigenous lands overlap with biofuel feedstock zones. Alternative pathways, such as agroecological systems integrating bioenergy with food crops, could reduce emissions by 30% while maintaining rural livelihoods. Future energy security in Vietnam may depend less on biofuels and more on decentralized solar-wind hybrids and community-based biogas systems, as seen in Germany’s Energiewende model.

Rural women, who perform 70% of agricultural labor in Vietnam, are disproportionately affected by biofuel expansion, as their roles in seed selection and food production are sidelined in favor of industrial crop models. Ethnic minority groups, such as the H’mong and Dao, face land dispossession and cultural erosion as their territories are converted to biofuel plantations. The voices of Mekong Delta fishermen, whose catches are declining due to upstream dam construction and salinity intrusion, are entirely absent from the biofuel debate, despite their reliance on the river’s ecological health.