US-Pakistan-Iran tensions escalate as geopolitical chessboard shifts: systemic rivalries and proxy dynamics overshadow regional stability

Indigenous Pashtun and Baloch communities in the Pakistan-Afghanistan borderlands have long been collateral damage in state-to-state rivalries, with their lands militarised and their voices excluded from formal negotiations. The Durand Line, imposed by British colonial cartographers in 1893, remains a contested border that splits Pashtun tribes, yet neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan has sought meaningful consultation with affected communities. Indigenous knowledge systems—such as Pashtunwali, the traditional code of the Pashtuns—emphasise hospitality and revenge, which are weaponised by state actors to justify counterinsurgency operations, further destabilising the region.

The current tensions are a microcosm of a 70-year-old Cold War proxy struggle, where Pakistan served as a US ally against Soviet expansion (1950s-80s), then pivoted to China after the 1965 war with India, and now balances between Washington and Beijing amid Afghanistan’s collapse. Iran’s refusal of direct talks echoes its 1980s isolation during the Iran-Iraq War, when it relied on non-state proxies like Hezbollah to project power, a strategy now mirrored in its support for Taliban factions. The 1994 Siachen Glacier conflict between India and Pakistan foreshadows today’s water and territorial disputes in the region.

In West Asia, ‘negotiation’ is often a euphemism for ‘managed conflict,’ where indirect talks via third parties (e.g., Oman, China) allow face-saving while avoiding substantive concessions. Pakistani military elites, trained in British colonial traditions, view diplomacy through a Clausewitzian lens—war by other means—while Iranian negotiators frame discussions within an Islamic revolutionary paradigm that rejects ‘hegemonic’ US demands. The concept of ‘strategic patience’ in Persian culture contrasts with the US’s transactional approach, where short-term gains (e.g., drone strikes) undermine long-term stability.

Systemic analysis reveals that the US-Pakistan-Iran dynamic operates within a ‘security dilemma’ framework, where actions perceived as defensive by one actor are seen as offensive by others, leading to arms races and proxy conflicts. Empirical studies on regional alliances (e.g., Pakistan’s CPEC with China, Iran’s ties to the Taliban) show that economic interdependence does not necessarily reduce conflict when strategic mistrust is high. The ‘resource curse’ literature explains Pakistan’s instability as a function of its geopolitical rent-seeking, where foreign aid and military support distort governance and fuel corruption.

Artistic expressions from the region—such as Pakistani poet Faiz Ahmed Faiz’s ‘Subh-e-Azadi’ (Dawn of Freedom)—frame national identity as a site of perpetual struggle, mirroring the cyclical violence of negotiations. Sufi shrines in Sindh and Balochistan, historically neutral spaces, are now militarised, eroding their role as cultural mediators. Iranian cinema (e.g., Abbas Kiarostami’s ‘Taste of Cherry’) often depicts existential dilemmas in landscapes scarred by war, while Pashtun folk music (e.g., Attan dances) serves as both resistance and communal healing, yet remains unacknowledged in geopolitical discourse.

Scenario modelling suggests that if Pakistan’s economic crisis deepens (e.g., default on IMF loans), the military may stage another coup, aligning more closely with China and Iran to resist US pressure, potentially triggering a regional arms race. A ‘controlled escalation’ model, where Iran and Pakistan tacitly coordinate on Afghanistan while avoiding direct US confrontation, could emerge as the most stable outcome—but only if Washington accepts a reduced role. Climate-induced water scarcity (e.g., Indus River disputes) may force cooperation on resource management, as seen in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, but only if negotiators prioritise ecological survival over geopolitical posturing.

Marginalised voices include Afghan refugees in Pakistan (1.4 million registered, 1 million undocumented), who face deportation threats and systemic discrimination, exacerbating tensions with local communities. Baloch women activists, such as those in the ‘Baloch Women’s Resistance’ movement, document state violence but are excluded from peace processes. Pakistani Christians and Ahmadis, often scapegoated in national security narratives, are disproportionately affected by counterterrorism laws. The ‘Pashtun Tahafuz Movement’ (PTM), which demands accountability for extrajudicial killings, has been labelled a ‘foreign conspiracy’ by the military, further silencing dissent.