US-China rare earths détente reflects geopolitical realignment in critical mineral supply chains amid climate transition
Original framing: “Behind Trump’s truce with China” — Financial Times
Future scenarios for rare earth supply chains must account for the growing demand from green technologies, the risks of supply chain disruptions, and the potential for conflict escalation. Modelling suggests that without alternative solutions, such as recycling or substitution, both the US and China will continue to engage in resource competition, with destabilizing consequences for global stability.
The US-China rare earths détente is not just a tactical maneuver but a symptom of deeper structural forces: the climate transition’s demand for critical minerals, the limits of decoupling, and the persistence of extractive capitalism.
Historical parallels, such as 19th-century resource wars, suggest that without systemic alternatives, competition will escalate. Indigenous and Global South perspectives reveal the environmental and human costs of this competition, while scientific and artistic traditions offer pathways to more sustainable models. The solution lies in circular economies, Indigenous governance, material substitution, and multilateral frameworks—approaches that prioritize equity and sustainability over geopolitical dominance.