Global Fertilizer Supply Chains Threatened by Geopolitical Oil Transit Risks in Strait of Hormuz

Indigenous and traditional agricultural systems globally demonstrate viable alternatives to synthetic fertilizers, which are derived from oil refining—a process vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Systems like the Andean *waru waru* (raised field agriculture) or African *chitemene* slash-and-burn techniques maintain soil fertility through closed-loop nutrient cycling, contrasting with the linear, extractive model of petrochemical agriculture. These practices are often marginalized in favor of industrial solutions, despite their resilience to supply chain disruptions.

The Strait of Hormuz’s role as a global oil transit chokepoint is a legacy of 20th-century imperial oil politics, where Western powers (particularly the U.S. and UK) secured control over Middle Eastern oil to fuel industrial agriculture in the Global North. Sanctions on Iran—dating back to the 1979 revolution and intensified post-2006—have repeatedly disrupted fertilizer exports, creating a pattern of food system vulnerability tied to geopolitical leverage. The shift from organic to synthetic fertilizers in the 20th century was accelerated by U.S. agricultural policies like the Green Revolution, which prioritized high-input monocultures over traditional knowledge.

Cross-culturally, agricultural resilience is often tied to polycultural systems that reduce dependency on external inputs. In India, the *Navdanya* movement revives traditional seed-saving practices and mixed-cropping systems to mitigate fertilizer shortages, while in Cuba, the *organopónicos* urban farming model emerged after the Soviet collapse to replace synthetic inputs with organic alternatives. These examples highlight how diverse cultures have historically adapted to supply chain disruptions through decentralized, knowledge-based solutions.

Scientifically, the global fertilizer industry is a major consumer of natural gas, with synthetic nitrogen fertilizers (e.g., urea) accounting for ~2% of global energy use and ~1.4% of CO2 emissions. The Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of the world’s oil supply, making it a critical node in the petrochemical supply chain that underpins modern agriculture. Research shows that agroecological systems can match or exceed synthetic fertilizer yields in certain contexts while reducing input dependency, challenging the assumption that industrial agriculture is the only viable model.

Artistically, the disruption of fertilizer supply chains echoes themes of fragility in systems built on extraction, as seen in works like Arundhati Roy’s *The God of Small Things* or the poetry of Mahmoud Darwish, which critique the violence of imposed monocultures. Spiritually, many indigenous traditions frame soil as a living ancestor (e.g., the Māori concept of *whenua* or the Hindu reverence for *Bhumi*), framing its degradation as a moral failure of extractive systems. These perspectives contrast with the commodified view of soil as a substrate for industrial input application.

Future scenarios must account for the collapse of just-in-time global supply chains for fertilizers, which could trigger food price spikes in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where 30-50% of fertilizer is imported. Modeling suggests that a 30% reduction in synthetic nitrogen availability could decrease global grain yields by 10-15%, with disproportionate impacts on smallholder farmers. Alternative futures include localized biofertilizer production (e.g., using microbial inoculants) and policy shifts toward agroecology, which could reduce dependency on oil transit corridors by 40-60% over 20 years.

Marginalized voices—particularly smallholder farmers in Africa, South Asia, and Latin America—are systematically excluded from supply chain risk assessments, despite bearing the brunt of fertilizer shortages. Women farmers, who produce 60-80% of food in many Global South regions, are disproportionately affected by input price volatility due to gendered barriers in accessing credit and markets. Indigenous communities in the Amazon and Congo Basin, whose territories hold critical biodiversity for alternative fertilizer sources (e.g., mycorrhizal fungi), are often displaced by extractive industries that prioritize oil transit security over food sovereignty.