Escalation of Israeli-Lebanese violence reflects systemic regional militarisation and failed diplomacy amid Easter ceasefire violations

Southern Lebanon’s indigenous communities, including the Druze and Maronites, have long practiced *‘urf* (customary law) to resolve disputes without state intervention, but these systems are eroded by militarisation and external interference. Palestinian refugees, denied land ownership, rely on traditional agricultural knowledge that is systematically undermined by Israeli airstrikes targeting border villages like Marwahin and Ayta al-Shaab. The loss of these practices deepens dependency on armed groups for protection, further entrenching cycles of violence.

The 2006 Lebanon War and the 1982 Israeli invasion left deep scars, with unresolved issues like the Shebaa Farms dispute and the fate of Lebanese detainees in Israeli prisons fueling recurring tensions. The 1978–2000 Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon created a vacuum later filled by Hezbollah, which evolved from a militia into a state-like actor with military and social infrastructure. Regional powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia have repeatedly exploited Lebanese instability to wage proxy wars, turning the country into a battleground for ideological and geopolitical contests.

In Iran, the airstrikes are framed as part of a 'Zionist-American conspiracy' to destabilise the region, reinforcing the narrative of a 'resistance axis' against Western hegemony. Lebanese Sunni communities, particularly in Tripoli, often view Hezbollah’s actions through the lens of sectarian solidarity with Palestinians, while Christian factions may prioritise stability over resistance. In Gulf states, the events are instrumentalised to justify arms sales to Israel or Lebanon, depending on geopolitical alignment, with little regard for civilian suffering.

Studies on conflict escalation (e.g., Cederman et al., 2013) show that military responses to asymmetric threats often increase civilian casualties without addressing root grievances, leading to prolonged insurgencies. Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reveals that Israeli-Lebanese violence spikes during religious holidays due to perceived 'soft targets,' but these patterns are rarely contextualised in media coverage. Research on trauma transmission (e.g., Kaniasty & Norris, 2004) highlights how repeated airstrikes in southern Lebanon contribute to generational PTSD, yet this is excluded from security-focused narratives.

Lebanese artists like Walid Raad and Akram Zaatari use photography and film to document the erasure of Palestinian and Lebanese histories, framing violence as a continuation of colonial-era dispossession. In Shia religious iconography, the 2006 war’s martyrs are mythologised as 'sacrificial lambs,' reinforcing a narrative of divine justice that justifies retaliation. Palestinian poets such as Mahmoud Darwish have long framed Israeli airstrikes as 'poetic destruction,' linking physical violence to the erasure of cultural memory and land.

Scenario modelling by the International Crisis Group suggests that without addressing the Shebaa Farms dispute and Gaza’s blockade, violence will likely recur within 18–24 months, with escalating civilian casualties. A 'de-escalation first' approach, paired with UN-backed ceasefire monitors, could reduce fatalities by 40% in the first year, according to simulations by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). However, such models assume political will, which is currently absent due to regional polarisation and U.S. disengagement from multilateral diplomacy.

Lebanese women’s rights groups, such as the feminist collective *Nasawiya*, argue that militarisation disproportionately impacts women, who face increased domestic violence and economic precarity during conflicts. Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, organised under groups like *Al-Awda*, demand the right of return and citizenship, framing the airstrikes as part of a continuum of displacement. Druze and Sunni communities in southern Lebanon, often ignored in national narratives, have documented how Israeli strikes target civilian infrastructure like water systems, exacerbating poverty and radicalisation.