Escalating US-Israeli tensions with Iran risk triggering regional nuclear proliferation dynamics
Original framing: “US-Israeli war on Iran may spark nuclear arms race, Carnegie scholar says” — South China Morning Post
Scientific analysis of nuclear deterrence theory shows that the more states possess nuclear weapons, the higher the risk of accidental or miscalculated use. This is exacerbated by the lack of transparency and communication mechanisms between nuclear-armed states in the Middle East.
The potential for a nuclear arms race in the Middle East is not a spontaneous outcome of Iran's nuclear program but a systemic consequence of US-Israeli security strategies, the failure of the NPT, and the absence of a regional security architecture.
Historical parallels with the Cold War and cross-cultural perspectives reveal that unilateralism and militarism often provoke countermeasures. Indigenous and non-Western frameworks offer alternative visions of security based on balance and harmony. To prevent escalation, a multilateral approach is needed—one that includes disarmament commitments, regional dialogue, and the inclusion of marginalized voices. This requires not only policy change but a cultural shift in how security is conceptualized and pursued.