Vietnam’s police expansion mirrors authoritarian trends amid China’s influence: systemic shifts in governance and security

Vietnam’s governance traditions, shaped by centuries of Chinese influence and French colonialism, have long emphasized hierarchical control and collective responsibility, which today are repurposed to justify expanded police powers. Indigenous perspectives from Vietnam’s ethnic minorities, such as the Hmong or Montagnard communities, highlight how state security measures often target cultural and linguistic autonomy under the guise of national unity. These communities’ oral histories and land-based resistance movements offer critical counter-narratives to the ‘China model’ trope, revealing how authoritarianism is localized rather than imported.

Vietnam’s security apparatus has evolved through cycles of colonial repression, socialist centralization, and post-Doi Moi market liberalization, each phase embedding new forms of control. The current police expansion echoes the ‘rectification’ campaigns of the 1950s–60s, where ideological conformity was enforced through surveillance and coercion. Meanwhile, China’s ‘stability maintenance’ system, which Vietnam is emulating, traces its roots to the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown and the post-Mao consolidation of party-state power.

Across Southeast Asia, authoritarian governance models share common threads: the use of ‘national security’ to suppress dissent, the co-optation of legal systems to criminalize activism, and the militarization of civilian institutions. In Thailand, the monarchy’s legal protections enable similar police overreach, while in Cambodia, Hun Sen’s regime has systematically dismantled opposition parties under the pretext of stability. These parallels reveal a regional pattern where ‘development’ is conflated with ‘order,’ often at the expense of democratic freedoms.

Research on authoritarian consolidation highlights how expanded police powers correlate with increased state violence, reduced civic participation, and economic stagnation in the long term. Studies by the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute show that Vietnam’s democratic backsliding since 2010 has coincided with a 40% increase in political prisoners. Meanwhile, criminological evidence from China demonstrates that ‘stability maintenance’ systems disproportionately target marginalized groups, including Uyghurs, Falun Gong practitioners, and labor activists.

Vietnamese folk traditions, such as ca trù (ceremonial singing) and hò vè (work songs), have long served as vehicles for subtle critique of state power, often through metaphor and allegory. In China, the Falun Gong’s persecution has spurred underground artistic resistance, from handwritten zines to digital memes that subvert state propaganda. These creative acts of defiance reveal how authoritarianism’s cultural erasure is met with equally creative forms of resistance, challenging the narrative that ‘stability’ requires the suppression of artistic expression.

If Vietnam continues to emulate China’s security model, it risks deepening social fragmentation, as seen in China’s ongoing Uyghur crisis, where mass surveillance has fueled ethnic tensions and international isolation. Scenario modeling suggests that unchecked police expansion could trigger a cycle of protest and repression, similar to Thailand’s 2020 youth-led democracy movement. Conversely, a pivot toward participatory governance—such as decentralized community policing or digital rights protections—could mitigate these risks while preserving economic growth.

Vietnam’s ethnic minorities, LGBTQ+ communities, and independent journalists face disproportionate harassment under the expanded police powers, with reports of arbitrary detentions and forced confessions. In China, the ‘stability maintenance’ system has systematically erased Uyghur, Tibetan, and Falun Gong identities, using surveillance and re-education to enforce cultural assimilation. These marginalized groups offer crucial insights into the human costs of authoritarian governance, yet their perspectives are consistently excluded from mainstream narratives about ‘model’ systems.