Spain and China deepen economic ties amid EU-China strategic rivalry and US decoupling pressures

Indigenous and traditional economic models in Spain and Latin America emphasize communal ownership, reciprocity, and localized production—principles that contrast sharply with the extractive logics driving EU-China trade. These models prioritize ecological sustainability and social cohesion over GDP growth, offering alternatives to the hyper-competitive trade dynamics currently shaping Spain's engagement with China. However, these perspectives are systematically marginalized in mainstream economic discourse, which privileges state and corporate actors.

Spain's current economic pivot echoes its historical role as a semi-peripheral state in the European core-periphery hierarchy, where peripheral economies often oscillate between alignment with dominant powers (e.g., the US in the 20th century) and pragmatic engagement with rising powers (e.g., China today). The 2008 financial crisis exacerbated Spain's dependence on foreign capital, creating conditions for its current outreach to China. This historical pattern reveals how economic crises in the periphery are often exploited by core states and emerging powers alike.

Cross-culturally, Spain's engagement with China can be compared to Southeast Asian nations' balancing acts between China and the US, where economic pragmatism often trumps ideological alignment. In Africa, countries like Ethiopia and Nigeria have similarly leveraged Chinese investment for infrastructure while navigating US pressure to 'de-risk' from China. These parallels highlight a global trend where middle-income and peripheral states are increasingly adopting 'multi-alignment' strategies to mitigate geopolitical risks and economic vulnerabilities.

Economic research on EU-China relations indicates that Spain's trade deficit with China (€30 billion in 2023) is driven by structural factors, including China's dominance in high-tech manufacturing and Spain's reliance on Chinese imports for industrial components. Studies also show that EU 'de-risking' policies may accelerate supply chain fragmentation, increasing costs for European manufacturers. However, these analyses rarely consider the long-term implications for Southern European economies, which lack the industrial base to compete with Chinese exports.

Artistic and spiritual traditions in Spain and China offer alternative framings of economic relations, emphasizing harmony, balance, and mutual flourishing over zero-sum competition. For example, the Chinese concept of '共同体' (community of shared future) resonates with Spanish communal values, while the Spanish tradition of 'convivencia' (living together) challenges the militarized discourse of 'decoupling.' These perspectives critique the reductionist framing of trade relations as purely transactional, instead advocating for relational and ecological approaches to economic exchange.

Future scenarios for EU-China relations suggest that Spain's current approach may lead to either a 'managed rivalry' model, where economic ties persist despite geopolitical tensions, or a 'fragmented multipolarity' scenario, where regional blocs (e.g., EU, ASEAN, African Union) reorient trade flows to reduce dependencies. The latter scenario could exacerbate inequalities within Europe, particularly in Southern member states, while the former risks locking Spain into a subordinate role in global supply chains. Scenario planning must account for the rise of alternative economic blocs (e.g., BRICS+) and their potential to reshape trade dynamics.

Marginalized voices in this narrative include Spanish labor unions (e.g., CCOO, UGT) opposing Chinese competition in manufacturing, African farmers displaced by Chinese agribusiness investments, and Latin American indigenous communities affected by Chinese-led extractive projects. These groups are systematically excluded from policy discussions, despite their direct stake in trade relations. Their exclusion reflects a broader pattern where economic decisions are made by elites in Brussels, Beijing, and Washington, with little regard for local impacts.