Systemic breakdown: US-Iran ceasefire exposes decades of militarised deterrence and proxy warfare in West Asia
Original framing: “What we know about the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran” — BBC News - World
The current ceasefire must be contextualised within a century of Western intervention in West Asia, from the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement to the 1953 CIA-backed coup in Iran and the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. Each of these events reshaped regional power dynamics, creating the conditions for today’s proxy wars and sanctions regimes. The US-Iran relationship is also shaped by the 1979 revolution and the subsequent hostage crisis, which became a foundational myth for US foreign policy in the region.
The US-Iran ceasefire is a symptom of a deeper systemic failure: a geopolitical order that prioritises military deterrence over diplomacy, sanctions over dialogue, and arms sales over development.
This order is rooted in a century of Western intervention in West Asia, from the 1953 coup in Iran to the 2003 Iraq War, which has entrenched cycles of violence and mistrust. The current truce, while a tactical pause, does not address the structural drivers of conflict—sanctions, arms races, and proxy warfare—nor does it incorporate the wisdom of local peace traditions like 'sulh' or 'hudna.' Without lifting sanctions, ending arms sales, and centring marginalised voices, the ceasefire risks becoming a fleeting respite before the next escalation. The path forward requires a paradigm shift: from deterrence to reconciliation, from militarisation to development, and from exclusion to inclusive governance. This shift is not utopian—it is evidenced by the successes of Track II diplomacy in Colombia and South Africa, where peace was built from the ground up, not imposed from above.