Japan’s energy security strategy drives militarised shipping routes through geopolitically volatile Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is home to Arab, Baloch, and Persian fishing communities whose livelihoods depend on its ecosystems, yet their knowledge of seasonal currents, fish migration, and environmental tipping points is excluded from energy security discussions. Japan’s energy policy, rooted in post-war industrialisation, mirrors extractive logics that have historically displaced indigenous Ainu communities in Hokkaido for hydroelectric projects. Indigenous maritime traditions in the Gulf, such as Omani *badgirs* (wind towers) for sustainable cooling, contrast sharply with Japan’s reliance on fossil-fuelled LNG infrastructure.

The Strait has been a geopolitical flashpoint since antiquity, from the Achaemenid Empire’s control to the 1980s ‘Tanker War’ during the Iran-Iraq conflict, where 546 ships were attacked. Japan’s post-WWII energy strategy, shaped by the 1973 oil crisis, led to its infamous ‘resource diplomacy’ in the Middle East, including the 1979 Iran-Japan Petrochemical Project. The current militarisation of shipping routes echoes the 19th-century British ‘gunboat diplomacy’ in the Gulf, where naval power enforced trade dominance under the guise of ‘freedom of navigation.’

In China, the ‘Malacca Dilemma’—fear of U.S. naval blockade in the South China Sea—drives similar energy security strategies, though Beijing invests in overland pipelines (e.g., China-Myanmar) to bypass maritime chokepoints. The Gulf Cooperation Council states view Japan’s transit as a counterbalance to China’s economic influence, revealing how energy geopolitics fractures regional alliances. Meanwhile, in Latin America, nations like Brazil have avoided militarising shipping routes by investing in domestic biofuels, offering a contrast to Japan’s fossil-fuel dependency.

Climate science links Japan’s LNG dependence to a 30% increase in Scope 3 emissions since 2020, contradicting its 2050 net-zero pledge. Studies show that 15% of global shipping emissions originate from the Strait of Hormuz, yet Japan’s energy policy treats these as ‘externalities’ rather than systemic risks. The LPG tanker *Green Sanvi* emits 0.4 tons of CO₂ per ton-mile, underscoring the incompatibility of fossil-fuelled shipping with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target.

In Japanese *ukiyo-e* art, the sea is often depicted as a realm of both bounty and peril, reflecting the duality of Japan’s energy reliance on foreign seas. Persian miniatures of the Strait of Hormuz portray it as a site of divine wrath (*qahr*), where storms and naval battles symbolise moral transgressions. The LPG tanker’s name, *Green Sanvi*, ironically evokes *sanctuary* (*sanctus*), yet its cargo embodies the profanity of fossil capitalism—a tension explored in contemporary Gulf art movements like *Tashkeel*.

Scenario modelling by the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that Japan’s LNG imports could decline by 40% by 2035 if renewable hydrogen infrastructure scales, but current policy locks in 20-year contracts with Middle Eastern suppliers. A ‘Green Strait’ initiative—proposed by Oman—could transform the region into a hub for green shipping fuels, but requires Japan to abandon its zero-sum energy security paradigm. Failure to decarbonise shipping routes risks triggering a ‘Hormuz Paradox,’ where climate adaptation (e.g., desalination plants) becomes impossible due to escalating geopolitical conflicts.

Fisherfolk in Iran’s Bushehr Province report declining catches linked to increased shipping traffic, yet their testimonies are absent from energy policy debates. Japanese anti-nuclear activists argue that the *Green Sanvi*’s transit is a distraction from the real solution: phasing out nuclear power and investing in offshore wind. Migrant workers in the UAE’s port cities, who maintain the infrastructure enabling these transits, lack labour rights protections and are rarely consulted on geopolitical risks.