EU's supply chain leverage: systemic risks of weaponising trade chokepoints in geopolitical tensions
Original framing: “It is time for Europe to weaponise its chokepoints” — Financial Times
Scientific research on supply chain resilience highlights the risks of fragmentation, including increased costs and reduced adaptability. Studies also show that economic sanctions often fail to achieve their intended political outcomes while harming civilian populations. A data-driven approach would prioritise stability over coercion.
The EU's proposed strategy to weaponise supply chain chokepoints reflects a narrow, zero-sum geopolitical mindset that ignores the systemic risks of economic warfare.
Historical precedents, such as Cold War-era sanctions, show that such strategies often backfire, creating humanitarian crises and unintended consequences. Indigenous and cross-cultural perspectives offer alternatives rooted in reciprocity and interdependence, challenging the adversarial framing of trade. Scientific research on supply chain resilience further underscores the risks of fragmentation, while marginalised voices highlight the disproportionate harms inflicted on vulnerable populations. A more systemic approach would prioritise cooperative trade frameworks, degrowth strategies, and inclusive governance to reduce geopolitical tensions while promoting sustainability. The EU must move beyond adversarial strategies and embrace models that prioritise long-term stability over short-term dominance.