US senators push anti-China industrial policy amid global EV transition, risking supply chain fragmentation and climate goals

Indigenous communities in the US and abroad are directly impacted by the EV supply chain, from lithium mining in the Atacama Desert to cobalt extraction in the Congo, yet their land rights and consent are systematically ignored in industrial policy debates. The push for domestic EV production in the US often relies on the same extractive practices that have displaced Indigenous peoples for centuries, reinforcing colonial patterns of resource exploitation. Indigenous knowledge systems, such as traditional land stewardship, offer alternatives to industrial mining but are excluded from mainstream economic narratives.

The US has a long history of using industrial policy to dominate global markets, from the post-WWII Marshall Plan to the 1980s semiconductor wars with Japan, which ultimately led to US firms outsourcing production to China. The current push to exclude Chinese automakers echoes the 1980s 'Japan bashing' rhetoric, revealing a pattern of scapegoating foreign competitors for domestic industrial decline. Historical precedents also show that protectionist measures often backfire, as seen with the 2018 steel tariffs, which harmed US manufacturers more than foreign competitors.

In Europe, the response to US protectionism has been mixed, with some nations advocating for strategic autonomy while others seek to maintain trade ties with China for economic stability. African nations are leveraging their mineral wealth to negotiate better terms in the green transition, but risk being caught in a new form of resource colonialism. In Southeast Asia, countries like Vietnam and Thailand are positioning themselves as alternative manufacturing hubs, but face pressure from both US and Chinese firms to align with their industrial strategies.

The scientific consensus on climate change demands rapid decarbonization, which requires global cooperation in EV supply chains, not fragmentation. Critical minerals like lithium and cobalt are essential for battery production, and their supply chains are already strained by geopolitical tensions. Studies show that protectionist measures could delay the transition to clean energy by increasing costs and reducing access to affordable EVs in developing nations.

Artistic and spiritual traditions across cultures often frame industrialization as a disruption of natural harmony, a theme echoed in Indigenous cosmologies that view land as sacred. The current industrial rivalry reflects a mechanistic worldview that prioritizes profit over ecological balance, a paradigm challenged by Indigenous and Eastern philosophies that emphasize interdependence. Creative resistance, such as eco-art movements, critiques the extractive logic driving both US and Chinese industrial policies.

Scenario modelling suggests that US protectionism could lead to a bifurcated EV market, with high-cost US/European models for wealthy nations and cheaper, lower-quality Chinese models for the Global South. This could exacerbate global inequality and delay climate action by reducing access to affordable EVs in developing nations. Alternative models, such as international consortia for mineral supply chains, could ensure equitable access to green tech while reducing geopolitical tensions.

Marginalized communities in the US, such as Black and Latino neighborhoods near industrial zones, bear the brunt of pollution from domestic EV production, yet their health concerns are sidelined in favor of nationalist rhetoric. In the Global South, workers in mining and manufacturing sectors face exploitation under both US and Chinese firms, with little recourse for labor rights violations. Indigenous leaders and environmental justice activists are systematically excluded from policy discussions, despite their direct stake in the outcomes.