AI geospatial surveillance reveals US military logistics in Iran: How private firms exploit asymmetric data dominance to reshape global power dynamics

Indigenous and traditional knowledge systems in the Middle East and Central Asia have long used celestial navigation and terrain-based tracking to navigate and assert sovereignty over land and airspace. These practices are rooted in communal knowledge and ecological stewardship, contrasting with the extractive, profit-driven surveillance models now emerging. The erasure of these perspectives in favour of AI-driven geospatial analysis reflects a broader marginalisation of non-Western epistemologies in global security discourse.

The tracking of US aerial refuelling missions over Iran echoes Cold War-era surveillance of Soviet and US bomber routes, where tankers were critical nodes in nuclear strike capabilities. Historical precedents include the 1988 USS Vincennes shootdown of Iran Air Flight 655, which was enabled by misinterpreted radar data—a cautionary tale about the risks of automated surveillance. The current AI-driven tracking of tankers represents a modern iteration of this dynamic, where commercial data firms replace military radars, but with even less accountability.

In China, the use of AI for military logistics tracking aligns with the 'Three Warfares' doctrine (public opinion, psychological, and legal warfare), where data dominance is a strategic asset. Middle Eastern states, particularly Iran, have historically relied on asymmetric tactics (e.g., swarming drones, cyber deception) to counter superior airpower, suggesting a potential shift toward AI-enabled asymmetric responses. The lack of cross-regional frameworks for AI militarisation risks normalising a 'Wild West' of geospatial intelligence, where private firms dictate the rules of engagement.

AI-driven geospatial analysis relies on high-resolution satellite imagery, automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) data, and machine learning to infer patterns in military logistics. Studies show that tanker movements can be correlated with strike patterns using temporal and spatial clustering algorithms, though the accuracy depends on the quality and completeness of the input data. The scientific literature highlights the vulnerability of such systems to adversarial attacks (e.g., spoofing ADS-B signals) and the ethical risks of civilian satellite data being repurposed for military targeting.

Artistic and spiritual traditions often frame the sky as a sacred or contested space, from Indigenous Australian 'Dreaming' paths to Islamic cosmology’s emphasis on celestial order. The militarisation of airspace disrupts these cultural narratives, reducing the sky to a battleground for data and drones. Creative responses, such as drone art or poetry about surveillance, challenge the dehumanising logic of AI-driven conflict, offering alternative visions of security grounded in communal well-being rather than technological dominance.

If unregulated, AI-driven geospatial surveillance could lead to a 'surveillance arms race,' where states and non-state actors deploy increasingly sophisticated tracking systems to preempt military moves. Scenario modelling suggests that the proliferation of commercial satellite data could enable 'grey zone' conflicts, where private firms inadvertently trigger escalations by selling intelligence to conflicting parties. Long-term, this could erode the monopoly of states over strategic information, creating a multipolar security environment with no clear rules of engagement.

Marginalised voices include Iranian civilians living under drone surveillance, who face daily risks of misidentified strikes due to flawed AI analysis. Journalists and human rights defenders in the region are also targeted by both state and non-state surveillance, with their data used to suppress dissent. Indigenous communities in border regions (e.g., Baloch, Kurdish) are often caught in the crossfire of aerial surveillance, with their lands treated as expendable zones for military logistics. The lack of representation in this narrative reflects a broader pattern of securitisation that prioritises state and corporate interests over human security.