UK convenes Gulf allies to address Strait of Hormuz tensions amid US withdrawal from regional security frameworks

Indigenous Gulf maritime cultures, such as the Bedouin *sufrah* traditions of Oman and the UAE’s pearl-diving communities, historically resolved disputes through hospitality-based diplomacy and shared resource management, offering alternatives to state-centric security models. These practices were marginalized by British colonial cartography and later by US-led 'freedom of navigation' operations, which redefined the Strait as a global chokepoint rather than a shared ecosystem. Reintegrating these knowledge systems could reduce reliance on naval escalation and foster localized conflict resolution mechanisms.

The Strait’s instability is rooted in the 1953 Anglo-American coup against Iran’s democratically elected government, which installed the Shah’s regime and later led to the 1979 Islamic Revolution—a turning point that reshaped Gulf security dynamics. The 1980s Tanker War during the Iran-Iraq War demonstrated how sanctions and naval blockades escalate rather than resolve conflicts, a pattern repeated in modern US sanctions regimes. The UK’s colonial-era treaties with Gulf sheikhdoms (e.g., 1820 General Maritime Treaty) established a precedent for Western dominance over maritime trade, which persists in today’s NATO-led patrols.

Comparing the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (Yemen-Djibouti), where Somali and Yemeni fishermen collaborate with Eritrean and Saudi traders to bypass piracy, reveals how non-state actors can stabilize maritime corridors without military intervention. In Southeast Asia, the Malacca Strait is managed through the *Malacca Straits Patrol* (Indonesia-Malaysia-Singapore-Thailand), a model that prioritizes intelligence-sharing over gunboat diplomacy. These cases highlight how regional coalitions, rather than external powers, can sustainably address maritime security threats.

Satellite data from NASA’s VIIRS and ESA’s Sentinel-1 shows that naval exercises in the Strait increase microplastic pollution and disrupt marine mammal migration patterns, particularly for the endangered dugong populations near Abu Dhabi. Studies by the *Journal of Marine Policy* indicate that 70% of oil spills in the Gulf originate from tanker collisions or military activities, not commercial accidents, challenging the narrative that 'freedom of navigation' enhances safety. Meanwhile, research from the *Arabian Gulf University* suggests that coral reefs in the Strait, critical for fisheries, have declined by 40% since 2000 due to thermal stress and dredging linked to military infrastructure.

In Persian Gulf poetry, the Strait is often metaphorized as a 'veil between two seas' (*pardeh-ye do darya*), symbolizing both separation and connection—a duality that mirrors its geopolitical role as a bridge and a barrier. Omani *barzanj* (sea chanteys) and Emirati *fann al-sama’* (sailor songs) encode navigational knowledge and warnings about storms, which historically served as early-warning systems for regional conflicts. Contemporary artists like Bahraini Ali Hassan and Iranian Shirin Neshat depict the Strait as a site of both oppression and resilience, critiquing Western militarization while celebrating local resistance.

Scenario modeling by the *International Crisis Group* suggests that a US-Iran naval confrontation in the Strait could disrupt 20% of global oil supply, triggering a 300% spike in Brent crude prices and a global recession within 6 months. Alternative futures include a 'Gulf Security Compact' modeled on the ASEAN-led *ZOPFAN* (Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality), where regional states agree to demilitarize the Strait in exchange for shared economic benefits. Another model, inspired by the *Nordic-Baltic Security Initiative*, proposes a neutral maritime monitoring force (comprising Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait) to replace NATO patrols, reducing great-power competition.

Yemeni fishermen in the Strait’s southern approaches report being targeted by both Houthi forces and coalition navies, with 80% of their traditional fishing grounds now inaccessible due to minefields and restricted zones. Iraqi traders, who rely on the Strait for 90% of their imports, face delays and extortion at Iranian checkpoints, exacerbating post-ISIS economic collapse. Meanwhile, Baloch and Ahwazi communities in Iran and Pakistan, who live along the Strait’s shores, suffer from environmental degradation linked to oil spills and military exercises, yet their testimonies are excluded from Western security narratives.