China’s GJ-21 stealth drones reflect escalating naval drone warfare: systemic risks of unchecked militarisation in the Taiwan Strait

Indigenous Taiwanese and Pacific Islander communities view the militarisation of the strait as a continuation of colonial dispossession, where ancestral lands and waters are treated as expendable in geopolitical games. Their knowledge systems emphasize relational security—prioritising harmony with the marine environment over technological dominance—offering an alternative to the securitisation narrative. However, these perspectives are systematically excluded from mainstream security discourse, which privileges state actors and technological solutions.

The integration of drones into naval warfare mirrors historical patterns of technological escalation in maritime conflicts, from the torpedo boats of the 19th century to the kamikaze drones of World War II. The Taiwan Strait has been a flashpoint for decades, with each new military innovation—from missiles to cyber capabilities—being framed as a 'game-changer' that necessitates countermeasures. This cyclical escalation has roots in the Cold War, where proxy conflicts in the region were used to test and legitimise new weapons systems.

In contrast to the Chinese state’s emphasis on technological deterrence, many Southeast Asian nations—such as Indonesia and Malaysia—have pursued non-aligned security policies that prioritise regional dialogue over arms races. Japanese and South Korean security strategies, while aligned with Western deterrence models, increasingly incorporate 'defensive realism' to mitigate the risks of autonomous systems. These cross-cultural variations highlight the contingency of military innovation on historical trauma, national identity, and regional power dynamics.

The GJ-21’s endurance and manoeuvrability are enabled by advances in electric propulsion, AI-driven autonomy, and composite materials, but these technologies also introduce vulnerabilities such as electronic warfare susceptibility and algorithmic bias. The integration of swarming drones into naval doctrine raises questions about command-and-control reliability, cyber-resilience, and the potential for unintended escalation in high-tempo operations. Peer-reviewed studies on autonomous systems in conflict zones consistently warn of the 'automation bias' that can lead to miscalculation.

Artistic responses to drone warfare, such as Ai Weiwei’s 'Law of the Journey' or Hito Steyerl’s essays on 'poor images,' critique the dehumanisation inherent in remote killing and the commodification of war as spectacle. Indigenous Taiwanese artists like Sakuliu Pavavalung use traditional weaving patterns to symbolise the interconnectedness of land and sea, framing militarisation as a rupture in this web of life. These creative interventions challenge the militarised imagination by centring human and ecological costs over technological prowess.

Scenario modelling suggests that the deployment of stealth drones and swarming boats could trigger a 'security dilemma spiral,' where each side’s defensive measures are perceived as offensive threats, leading to preemptive strikes or accidental escalation. Future naval doctrines may prioritise 'swarm-on-swarm' engagements, increasing the risk of catastrophic miscalculation in a region already prone to misperception. Long-term, the integration of AI into naval warfare could erode human oversight, creating 'flashpoints without humans in the loop.'

Taiwanese peace activists, such as those in the 'Anti-War Alliance,' argue that the focus on military countermeasures distracts from the root causes of tension, including economic inequality and political marginalisation of indigenous groups. Fisherfolk communities in the strait, whose nets are frequently damaged by military exercises, are rarely consulted in security debates despite bearing the brunt of escalation. In China, military-civil fusion policies silence dissent by framing security concerns as existential, marginalising voices advocating for demilitarisation or arms control.