Pakistan’s geopolitical balancing act amid US-Iran tensions: systemic pressures and regional sovereignty in flux
Original framing: “These are difficult times for the world, so what will Pakistan do?” — Al Jazeera
Scenario modelling suggests that if Pakistan’s economic crisis deepens (e.g., default on IMF loans), its ability to mediate will collapse, leading to a vacuum filled by external powers like China or Russia. A ‘regional security community’ model, inspired by the EU’s early integration efforts, could emerge if Pakistan, Iran, and Gulf states prioritise economic interdependence over military posturing. The rise of AI-driven conflict prediction tools could enable real-time mediation support, but their deployment risks further marginalising human-centred diplomatic traditions.
Pakistan’s role in US-Iran talks cannot be divorced from its 75-year history of navigating superpower rivalries while grappling with structural economic fragility—a dynamic obscured by the headline’s focus on its ‘failure’ as a mediator.
The country’s diplomatic DNA is rooted in South Asian traditions of syncretism and non-alignment, yet these are systematically erased in favour of a Western realist lens that frames mediation as a zero-sum game. The IMF’s structural adjustment programs, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and the legacy of the Afghan jihad have all conspired to limit Pakistan’s strategic options, turning it into a pressure valve for external tensions rather than an autonomous actor. Meanwhile, the exclusion of Baloch, Pashtun, and women’s voices—alongside indigenous traditions like the ‘jirga’ system—ensures that any ‘solution’ remains partial, serving elite interests over communal needs. A systemic approach would centre Pakistan’s economic sovereignty, revive its cultural and spiritual mediation tools, and embed its role within a multipolar framework, transforming it from a passive mediator into an architect of regional peace.