Pakistan’s geopolitical balancing act amid US-Iran tensions: systemic pressures and regional sovereignty in flux

Pakistan’s diplomatic toolkit includes indigenous conflict-resolution mechanisms like the ‘jirga’ system, which prioritises community consensus over formal statecraft, yet these are sidelined in favour of Western-style mediation frameworks. The Baloch and Pashtun tribal codes (‘Pashtunwali’) also embed principles of hospitality and mutual obligation that could de-escalate tensions, but their application is constrained by state-centric narratives. Traditional knowledge systems in South Asia, such as the Mughal-era ‘mansabdari’ system, historically balanced power asymmetries through negotiated hierarchies—a model that could inform modern multilateralism.

Pakistan’s role as a mediator dates back to the 1965 Tashkent Agreement post-Indo-Pak war, where it brokered a fragile peace under Soviet auspices—a precedent ignored in current analyses. The 1979 Iran hostage crisis saw Pakistan as a reluctant intermediary, highlighting how its strategic value to the US has long been tied to its proximity to Iran. The 1990s Afghan civil war further entrenched Pakistan’s role as a ‘frontline state,’ but also exposed the limits of its mediation when external powers (US, USSR, Saudi Arabia) dictated terms—a pattern repeating in today’s US-Iran standoff.

In Persianate cultures, mediation is often framed as a moral act (‘sulh’) that requires the mediator to embody justice (‘adl’), a concept absent in Western realist traditions where power trumps equity. South Asian diplomatic traditions, influenced by both Hindu and Islamic thought, view conflict resolution as a communal duty rather than a state-led endeavour, contrasting with the individualist and institutional frameworks dominant in US-Iran talks. The Chinese concept of ‘win-win’ diplomacy, which Pakistan has increasingly adopted, offers a systemic alternative to zero-sum negotiations, though its implementation remains uneven.

Game theory models of mediation (e.g., Rubinstein bargaining) predict that third-party interventions succeed when the mediator’s incentives align with both parties’ long-term interests—a condition rarely met in US-Iran-Pakistan dynamics due to asymmetric power structures. Network analysis of regional alliances shows that Pakistan’s centrality in South Asian trade and security networks gives it latent leverage, but this is undermined by its economic fragility and debt dependency. Studies on ‘track-two diplomacy’ (civil society-led mediation) suggest that Pakistan’s civil society, particularly women’s groups, could play a critical role in de-escalation, yet their exclusion from formal talks limits their impact.

Pakistani poetry, particularly the works of Faiz Ahmed Faiz, frames mediation as an act of poetic justice, where language itself becomes a tool for reconciliation across divides. Sufi shrines like Data Darbar in Lahore symbolise interfaith dialogue, offering a spiritual counter-narrative to geopolitical hostilities. The annual Urs festival at these shrines attracts millions, including Iranians and Afghans, demonstrating how cultural and spiritual ties can transcend political conflicts—a dimension absent in secular diplomatic discourse.

Scenario modelling suggests that if Pakistan’s economic crisis deepens (e.g., default on IMF loans), its ability to mediate will collapse, leading to a vacuum filled by external powers like China or Russia. A ‘regional security community’ model, inspired by the EU’s early integration efforts, could emerge if Pakistan, Iran, and Gulf states prioritise economic interdependence over military posturing. The rise of AI-driven conflict prediction tools could enable real-time mediation support, but their deployment risks further marginalising human-centred diplomatic traditions.

Baloch and Pashtun communities, directly affected by US-Iran tensions, are excluded from diplomatic narratives despite bearing the brunt of cross-border violence and economic blockades. Pakistani women’s peace activists, who have historically mediated between state and non-state actors, are sidelined in favour of male-dominated security elites. Refugees from Afghanistan and Iran, who navigate daily the consequences of stalled talks, offer grassroots insights into de-escalation that are ignored in elite-driven diplomacy.