Geopolitical oil transit risks in Strait of Hormuz reveal systemic energy security vulnerabilities amid Iran-Israel tensions

Indigenous Gulf communities, including Omani and Iranian coastal tribes, have historically managed maritime resources through communal governance systems that prioritise ecological balance over state control. Their knowledge of seasonal currents, wind patterns, and fish migration routes contrasts with modern militarised navigation, which treats the Strait as a contested space rather than a shared commons. However, their perspectives are systematically excluded from energy security debates, which privilege state and corporate interests over local stewardship.

The Strait of Hormuz has been a flashpoint since the 1950s, when Western powers used oil as a tool of influence, culminating in the 1953 coup against Iran’s democratically elected government. The 1980s Tanker War during the Iran-Iraq conflict established precedents for modern sanctions and militarisation, normalising the weaponisation of oil transit. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal briefly de-escalated tensions, but its collapse under Trump’s 'maximum pressure' policy revived the cycle of retaliation and deterrence, demonstrating how historical grievances and short-term policies perpetuate instability.

In the Gulf, the Strait is framed as a 'cradle of civilisation' in Islamic and pre-Islamic traditions, where trade and cultural exchange flourished for millennia. Iranian narratives often depict sanctions as a form of 'economic warfare,' resonating with anti-colonial struggles in Africa and Latin America. Meanwhile, in India, the risks to seafarers—who make up 20% of the world’s merchant fleet—highlight how energy geopolitics disproportionately impacts the Global South’s working classes, revealing a transnational class divide in maritime labour.

Satellite data and maritime traffic analysis confirm that 20-30% of global oil supply transits the Strait, making it the world’s most critical chokepoint for energy security. Studies show that sanctions and military posturing increase the risk of miscalculation and accidents, as seen in the 2019 attacks on tankers near Fujairah. However, scientific assessments rarely model the long-term economic and ecological costs of fossil fuel dependency, which exacerbate climate risks and regional instability.

The Strait of Hormuz appears in Persian poetry as a symbol of both bounty and peril, reflecting the duality of its role in regional identity. In Omani maritime traditions, the Strait is personified as a 'mother of pearls,' embodying the sacredness of the sea. Modern militarisation disrupts these cultural narratives, replacing them with dystopian imagery of 'shadow fleets' and 'ghost ships,' which reflect the dehumanisation of both environment and labour in energy geopolitics.

Scenario modelling suggests that without a shift toward renewable energy and regional cooperation, the Strait will remain a flashpoint, with risks of accidental conflict or deliberate disruption increasing by 2030. Alternative futures include a 'Green Gulf' alliance for shared renewable infrastructure or a 'Resource Curse' scenario where climate disasters and energy shocks destabilise the region further. The current path risks locking the Gulf into a cycle of militarisation and fossil fuel dependency, with catastrophic global consequences.

Seafarers from South Asia and Africa—who make up 80% of the Gulf’s maritime workforce—face disproportionate risks from sanctions, piracy, and militarisation, yet have no voice in policy decisions. Iranian civilians, particularly in port cities like Bandar Abbas, endure economic hardship from sanctions while bearing no responsibility for state policies. Indigenous communities in the Gulf, such as the Kumzari in Oman, are displaced by militarisation and climate change, their traditional livelihoods erased by state and corporate interests.