Iran leverages Strait of Hormuz closure to renegotiate nuclear deal amid US-Israeli escalation and asymmetric power dynamics

Indigenous and traditional Persian diplomatic thought, rooted in concepts like 'adab' (civility) and 'mohabbat' (love), frames nuclear negotiations as a moral duty to avoid harm to future generations, contrasting with the US-Israeli focus on deterrence. The Strait of Hormuz’s closure can be read as a performative act of 'resistance' (moqavemat), a term that carries deep cultural weight in Iranian political discourse, linking modern geopolitics to pre-Islamic Zoroastrian ideals of balance and justice. However, this perspective is largely absent in Western analyses, which reduce Iran’s actions to 'asymmetric warfare' without engaging with their cultural and historical significance.

The JCPOA’s collapse in 2018 was not an isolated event but the culmination of a century of Western interference in Iran, from the 1907 Anglo-Russian Agreement to the 1953 coup that overthrew Mossadegh. The Strait of Hormuz’s closure mirrors historical patterns of maritime blockades, such as Britain’s 1951 blockade of Iran during the Abadan Crisis, which were used to coerce resource-rich nations into submission. The current crisis also echoes the 1980s 'Tanker War' during the Iran-Iraq conflict, where both sides targeted shipping lanes to disrupt oil flows, demonstrating the Strait’s enduring role as a geopolitical pressure point.

In Latin America, Iran’s nuclear program is often framed as a right to self-determination, drawing parallels to Brazil and Argentina’s nuclear programs in the 1970s, which were also pursued under US pressure. African nations, particularly in the Non-Aligned Movement, have consistently called for nuclear disarmament in the Middle East, viewing Iran’s program as a symptom of broader insecurity rather than a standalone threat. In South Asia, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is justified as a deterrent against India, much like Iran’s program is framed as a response to Israel and the US, highlighting how nuclear ambiguity is a regional norm rather than an exception.

The IAEA has repeatedly verified Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA’s nuclear limits until 2019, when Iran began enriching uranium beyond agreed thresholds in response to the US withdrawal. Satellite imagery and open-source intelligence confirm Iran’s enrichment activities at Natanz and Fordow, but the scientific debate is often overshadowed by political narratives that frame Iran’s program as inherently destabilizing. The lack of transparency from Israel’s nuclear program—estimated at 90+ warheads—further skews the scientific discourse, as the IAEA has no access to Israeli facilities.

In Persian poetry, the Strait of Hormuz is metaphorically linked to the 'bridge of judgment' (pol-e serat), a threshold between life and death that requires courage to cross. The closure of the Strait can be seen as a performative act of 'artistic resistance,' where Iran stages its defiance through symbolic gestures that resonate in both political and cultural spheres. Sufi traditions emphasize the futility of fear in the face of oppression, a theme that aligns with Iran’s rhetoric of 'resistance' against overwhelming military power.

If current trends continue, Iran’s nuclear program may reach a 'breakout capacity' by 2027, triggering a regional arms race with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt seeking their own enrichment capabilities. A potential US-Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities could escalate into a full-scale conflict, disrupting global oil supplies and triggering a recession, particularly in energy-dependent economies like India and China. Alternative futures include a revived JCPOA with stricter verification mechanisms or a new regional security framework that addresses Israel’s arsenal and Iran’s security concerns.

Iranian women, who have been at the forefront of protests against both the regime and sanctions, are rarely consulted in nuclear diplomacy, despite their disproportionate suffering under economic isolation. Ethnic minorities like the Baloch and Kurds, who inhabit border regions near the Strait of Hormuz, face militarization and state violence, yet their perspectives are excluded from mainstream narratives. Diaspora Iranian communities, particularly in the US and Europe, are often silenced by accusations of 'dual loyalty,' further marginalizing their input into policy debates.