China’s export curbs on EU firms reflect geopolitical leverage over Taiwan arms trade and global supply chain dependencies

Taiwan’s indigenous communities, such as the Amis and Paiwan peoples, have long contested narratives of Chinese sovereignty, asserting their own forms of self-determination tied to ancestral lands and ecological stewardship. Their resistance to militarization and state control is often framed as 'illegal' by both Beijing and Taipei, revealing how indigenous knowledge systems are sidelined in favor of statist interpretations of territory. The erasure of these perspectives in global media reflects a broader pattern where indigenous sovereignty is treated as a secondary concern to geopolitical stability.

The 'One China' policy emerged from Cold War dynamics, where the U.S. and USSR recognized different Chinese governments, and has since been weaponized to isolate Taiwan diplomatically. Export controls as a tool of coercion date back to ancient empires (e.g., Rome’s grain embargoes) but were formalized in the 20th century through sanctions regimes like COCOM during the Cold War. The current crisis echoes the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait tensions, where U.S. aircraft carrier deployments and Chinese missile tests escalated into a show of force that reshaped regional security architectures.

In Southeast Asia, nations like Vietnam and the Philippines have navigated similar pressures from China, using a mix of hedging strategies and multilateral alliances to avoid over-dependence. Indigenous Pacific Islander models of sovereignty, such as those in West Papua, emphasize land and water as communal lifeways rather than state-controlled territories, offering an alternative to the binary Taiwan-China framing. Meanwhile, in Latin America, economic coercion has often been used by the U.S. to enforce political compliance, suggesting that China’s actions may be part of a broader trend of 'weaponized interdependence' in global trade.

Dual-use export controls are justified under the Wassenaar Arrangement and other regimes to prevent proliferation of technologies that could enable military applications, but their enforcement is often inconsistent and politically motivated. Studies show that such controls can disrupt global supply chains, increasing costs for civilian industries and creating inefficiencies that benefit state actors with alternative sourcing options. The scientific literature on economic statecraft highlights how sanctions and export bans rarely achieve their stated goals but instead reinforce power asymmetries and drive innovation in evasion strategies.

Artistic responses to Taiwan-China tensions often explore themes of fragmentation and identity, such as in the films of Tsai Ming-liang or the poetry of Hsia Yu, which critique state narratives through surrealism and fragmentation. Indigenous Taiwanese artists, like the Truku weavers, use textile traditions to assert cultural continuity in the face of erasure, framing sovereignty as an embodied practice rather than a political declaration. Meanwhile, in China, state-sponsored art often glorifies reunification, while underground movements use abstraction to critique the militarization of everyday life.

Scenario modeling suggests that escalating export controls could lead to a bifurcation of global supply chains, with blocs forming around U.S.-aligned and China-aligned tech standards, increasing costs and reducing innovation. A more cooperative model might involve shared export control regimes that prioritize civilian needs and technological equity, but this would require dismantling the securitization of trade. The rise of 'friend-shoring' could also create new dependencies, particularly for smaller economies that lack leverage in negotiations.

European SMEs in the aerospace and semiconductor sectors—particularly those in Germany and the Netherlands—are disproportionately affected by the curbs, with many lacking the resources to navigate complex compliance regimes. Taiwanese civil society groups, including labor unions and environmental activists, are often caught between pro-independence and pro-unification factions, with little space to advocate for de-escalation. Meanwhile, in China, Uyghur and Tibetan communities face heightened surveillance and restrictions as part of broader securitization efforts linked to 'national unity' narratives.