Geopolitical tensions escalate as Iran targets US military repositioning in Gulf: systemic risks of proxy conflicts and regional power vacuums

The Bubiyan Island, home to the indigenous Bubiyan tribe, has faced decades of environmental and territorial disruption due to military activities, including US and Gulf state exercises. Indigenous knowledge of the island’s ecosystem and its role in regional trade routes (e.g., pearl diving, fishing) is systematically excluded from geopolitical analyses. The militarization of the island has led to land degradation, displacement, and the erosion of traditional livelihoods, yet these impacts are framed as collateral damage rather than systemic violations of indigenous rights. Indigenous perspectives on sovereignty and peace—rooted in communal land stewardship—are absent from mainstream narratives.

The US military presence in Kuwait dates to the 1991 Gulf War and has expanded under the guise of counterterrorism and deterrence, but this is part of a longer history of Western military interventions in the Gulf since the 19th century. Iran’s 1988 'Operation Praying Mantis' against US forces in the Gulf, and the 1980s 'Tanker War' during the Iran-Iraq War, set precedents for today’s proxy conflicts. The JCPOA’s collapse in 2018 and subsequent US sanctions have revived Cold War-era economic warfare tactics, further destabilizing the region. Historical parallels show how external powers exploit regional rivalries to maintain influence, often at the expense of local stability.

In the Arab Gulf, security is often framed as a balance between external patrons (US, UK) and regional rivals (Iran), with little room for non-aligned or indigenous voices. Iranian narratives emphasize resistance to 'foreign domination' and the need for regional self-determination, echoing anti-colonial struggles across the Global South. Gulf Arab states, meanwhile, prioritize regime survival through alliances with Western powers, often at the cost of democratic accountability or regional cooperation. Non-Western security frameworks, such as the 2012 Arab Peace Initiative or Iran’s 'Axis of Resistance,' are rarely analyzed for their potential to de-escalate tensions, despite offering alternative pathways to peace.

Military repositioning in the Gulf is often justified through deterrence theory, but empirical evidence shows that forward-deployed forces increase the risk of miscalculation and escalation (e.g., 1988 USS Samuel B. Roberts incident). Studies on arms races (e.g., Richardson’s model) demonstrate that military buildups in contested regions correlate with higher conflict intensity. The relocation of US forces to Bubiyan Island—near Iran’s border and Iraq’s waters—exacerbates the 'security dilemma,' where actions perceived as defensive by one side are seen as offensive by another. Scientific literature on conflict resolution highlights the need for confidence-building measures (e.g., hotline agreements) to prevent escalation.

Artistic expressions from the Gulf, such as Iraqi poet Dunya Mikhail’s works on war’s absurdity or Iranian filmmaker Abbas Kiarostami’s meditations on borders, capture the human cost of militarization in ways that elude geopolitical jargon. Sufi and Shia traditions in Iran emphasize the futility of violence and the importance of reconciliation, while Gulf Arab poetry often laments the loss of communal harmony under foreign influence. Spiritual frameworks in the region, such as the concept of 'umma' (global Muslim community), challenge the sectarian and nationalist divisions fueling proxy wars. These perspectives are rarely integrated into policy discussions, despite their potential to humanize conflict narratives.

Scenario modeling by think tanks (e.g., RAND, SIPRI) suggests that continued US military presence in the Gulf risks further escalation, particularly if Iran’s nuclear program advances or if regional proxies (e.g., Houthis, Hezbollah) expand their operations. Alternative futures include a 'Gulf Security Architecture' modeled after ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, or a 'Neutral Zone' proposal where Gulf states agree to demilitarize contested islands. Climate change exacerbates resource scarcity (e.g., water, fisheries), which could intensify competition for control over strategic locations like Bubiyan. Future stability hinges on reducing external military footprints and investing in regional economic integration.

The voices of Iraqi civilians—caught between US occupation, Iranian influence, and Gulf state authoritarianism—are systematically excluded from narratives about Gulf security. Iranian Kurds, Ahwazi Arabs, and Baloch communities, who bear the brunt of state repression and proxy conflicts, are rarely consulted in peace processes. Gulf state citizens, particularly in Kuwait and Bahrain, face restrictions on political participation, limiting their ability to shape security policies that impact their lives. Women’s groups in the region, such as Kuwait’s Women’s Cultural and Social Society, have long advocated for demilitarization and dialogue, but their perspectives are marginalized in favor of elite-driven security narratives.