Systemic risks: How geopolitical tensions and naval militarisation threaten Strait of Hormuz maritime security

Coastal communities in Oman, Iran, and the UAE possess millennia-old ecological knowledge of the Strait’s currents, tides, and marine life, which could inform mine detection and clearance strategies. Traditional navigation techniques, such as reading bird migrations or sea state patterns, are dismissed in favour of high-tech surveillance, eroding intergenerational wisdom. Indigenous fishers report increased mine-related disruptions to fishing grounds, yet their insights are excluded from policy discussions, reinforcing a cycle of exclusion and risk.

The Strait has been a flashpoint since the 19th century, when British colonial powers imposed the 'Persian Gulf Residency' to control oil transit, setting a precedent for external militarisation. The 1980s Iran-Iraq War saw systematic mining of the Strait, leading to ecological damage that persists today, including coral reef degradation and fish stock collapse. Post-colonial state rivalries, such as those between Iran and Gulf monarchies, have repeatedly weaponised maritime infrastructure, normalising insecurity as a geopolitical tool.

In Southeast Asia, similar chokepoints like the Malacca Strait face comparable threats from piracy and naval exercises, yet regional cooperation frameworks like the 'Eyes in the Sky' initiative prioritise dialogue over militarisation. African coastal communities, such as in Mozambique, have developed community-led mine clearance programs integrating traditional knowledge, offering a model for the Gulf. The Strait’s shared ecological fate with the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman underscores the need for transregional solidarity, not just state-level agreements.

Scientific studies confirm that sea mines pose dual threats: immediate physical danger to vessels and long-term ecological harm from unexploded ordnance and oil spills. Research on mine detection in turbid, shallow waters like the Strait is limited, yet critical for coastal communities. The lack of peer-reviewed data on mine impacts in the region reflects a broader neglect of Gulf marine ecosystems in global environmental science, despite their ecological and economic significance.

The Strait’s waters are woven into the spiritual cosmology of Gulf communities, where stories of 'jinn' and sea spirits often serve as oral warnings about hidden dangers beneath the waves. Artists in Bahrain and Iran have used calligraphy and mural art to depict the Strait as a living entity under siege, challenging the dehumanisation of the conflict. Traditional music, such as Omani 'fann al-sama' or Iranian 'navayi', often mourns the loss of maritime livelihoods, offering a counter-narrative to state propaganda.

Scenario modelling by the UNEP and regional bodies predicts that unchecked militarisation could lead to a 30% reduction in fish stocks by 2040, threatening food security for 10 million people. Climate change exacerbates risks by altering currents and increasing storm surges, which may displace mines or trigger oil spills. A 'blue economy' framework, integrating desalination, renewable energy, and sustainable fisheries, could reduce dependence on oil transit and incentivise cooperation over conflict.

Women-led cooperatives in Iran’s Hormozgan province have documented mine-related injuries and economic losses, yet their testimonies are excluded from international reports. Migrant workers in UAE and Qatar’s port cities face heightened risks from mine threats but lack access to compensation or safety protocols. The narrative’s focus on state actors silences the voices of Bahraini and Kuwaiti activists protesting naval bases on their soil, framing dissent as a security threat rather than a demand for sovereignty.