India’s state elections unfold as global oil shocks and Gulf migration crises expose neoliberal energy dependency and geopolitical fragility

Adivasi and Dalit communities in India’s coal and oil belts have long resisted displacement for energy projects, framing their struggles as battles for *jal, jungle, jameen* (water, forest, land) against state-corporate collusion—echoing global Indigenous movements like the Standing Rock Sioux. Their knowledge of decentralized energy (e.g., biogas, micro-hydro) contrasts with the centralised fossil fuel model, yet is systematically excluded from policy debates. The silence on their resistance in election coverage reflects a broader erasure of Indigenous epistemologies in favor of state-led ‘development’ narratives.

India’s postcolonial energy policy has been shaped by the 1973 oil shock and the 1991 liberalization, which locked the country into oil import dependence while exporting labor to Gulf states—a pattern replicated across the Global South. The Non-Aligned Movement’s early calls for energy sovereignty were abandoned in favor of IMF/World Bank structural adjustment, creating today’s vulnerability to geopolitical shocks. Historical parallels abound in Latin America’s *petro-states* and Africa’s resource curse, yet these are rarely invoked in Indian election analyses.

The Gulf’s *kafala* system, which binds Indian migrants to employers, mirrors India’s own caste-based labor hierarchies, where Dalit and Adivasi workers are funneled into precarious, high-risk jobs—both systems rely on debt bondage and state violence to maintain control. In Kerala, the *Gulf Malayali* diaspora’s remittances (over $15 billion annually) prop up the state’s economy, yet their political agency is reduced to remittance recipients rather than stakeholders in policy. Comparable labor export regimes exist in the Philippines (OFWs) and Bangladesh, suggesting a regional pattern of ‘exporting poverty’ to sustain growth.

India’s energy import dependence is quantified at 85% for oil and 53% for gas, with Gulf states supplying 60% of crude imports—figures that highlight the systemic risk of supply chain disruptions. Studies show that renewable energy (solar/wind) could meet 70% of India’s electricity demand by 2030 at lower long-term costs, yet policy inertia and fossil fuel subsidies (₹1.3 lakh crore in 2023) delay transition. The scientific consensus on climate tipping points (e.g., Gulf Stream disruption) underscores the urgency of decoupling from fossil fuels, yet election coverage treats energy as a geopolitical variable rather than a climate variable.

Kerala’s *Theyyam* rituals and Sufi *Qawwali* performances in Gulf cities like Dubai and Doha serve as spiritual anchors for Malayali migrants, blending Kerala’s syncretic traditions with Arab-Islamic cultures—a lived syncretism erased by nationalist election narratives. Adivasi artists like the Gond and Warli communities depict energy extraction as a violation of sacred landscapes, using art to resist displacement in ways that challenge state development rhetoric. The spiritual dimension of labor migration is also reflected in Kerala’s churches and mosques, which organize remittance-based welfare systems for workers in distress.

Scenario modeling by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests India could face a 30% spike in oil prices by 2025 if the Iran-Israel conflict escalates, triggering a 15% increase in cooking gas prices and a 20% drop in Gulf labor demand. Alternative models, such as Kerala’s *Kudumbashree* microfinance networks, demonstrate how decentralized renewable energy cooperatives could reduce import dependence while creating local jobs. The long-term risk of Gulf instability (e.g., water scarcity, climate migration) demands scenario planning that integrates energy, labor, and climate policies—currently absent in election discourse.

Kerala’s *Gulf Malayali* workers—overwhelmingly Dalit and Muslim—face systemic wage theft, passport confiscation, and death in Gulf labor camps, yet their stories are reduced to ‘economic contributions’ in election rhetoric. Adivasi women in Jharkhand and Odisha, displaced by coal mining, report increased domestic violence and child labor as male family members migrate to cities or Gulf states—these intersections of gender, caste, and labor are ignored. Tamil Nadu’s fisherfolk, whose livelihoods are threatened by Gulf war-related oil spills, are framed as ‘climate victims’ rather than political actors demanding accountability from both Indian and Gulf states.