US escalates Gulf militarisation as failed diplomacy exposes fossil fuel geopolitics: systemic risks of Strait of Hormuz blockade

Indigenous and local communities along the Strait of Hormuz, including Baloch and Arab tribes, have historically managed maritime resources through customary laws (*urf*) and cooperative governance, which prioritise ecological balance over militarisation. Their knowledge of seasonal fishing patterns, water salinity, and trade routes offers a counter-narrative to state-centric security paradigms. However, their perspectives are systematically excluded from geopolitical discourse, as seen in the lack of representation in UNCLOS negotiations or regional security forums.

The Strait of Hormuz has been a flashpoint since the 19th century, when British colonial powers imposed unequal treaties to control trade routes, a legacy that continues today in US military dominance. The 1980s 'Tanker War' during the Iran-Iraq conflict demonstrated how energy corridors become battlegrounds when diplomacy fails, foreshadowing today’s blockade threats. The JCPOA’s collapse in 2018 and subsequent escalations reflect a pattern of failed Western-led negotiations, where sanctions and threats have repeatedly backfired, deepening regional distrust.

In East Asian geopolitics, the 'Malacca Dilemma'—China’s vulnerability to US control of the Strait of Malacca—parallels the US-Iran standoff, highlighting how energy security is a shared concern across cultures. African and Latin American nations, such as Brazil and Nigeria, have long resisted unilateral naval blockades, advocating for multilateral frameworks like the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Meanwhile, in South Asia, the concept of *vasudhaiva kutumbakam* (the world is one family) from Hindu and Buddhist traditions offers a philosophical alternative to zero-sum security thinking.

Scientifically, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point for global oil flows, with 20-30% of seaborne crude passing through daily, making it a systemic risk to energy markets. Military blockades would trigger cascading effects: oil price spikes, supply chain disruptions, and environmental disasters from potential tanker collisions or oil spills. Studies show that such disruptions disproportionately harm low-income nations reliant on Gulf oil, exacerbating global inequality. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has warned that a blockade could reduce global oil supply by 3-5 million barrels per day.

Artistically, the Strait of Hormuz has inspired poetry, music, and visual art that frame it as a site of both beauty and conflict, such as the works of Iranian poet Forugh Farrokhzad or Omani painter Hassan Meer. Spiritual traditions in the region, including Sufi and Zoroastrian cosmologies, often depict waterways as sacred entities deserving protection, contrasting with the commodification of oil. Meanwhile, global anti-war movements, from the 1960s counterculture to contemporary climate activism, have used art to challenge militarisation, as seen in Banksy’s murals or Iranian filmmaker Abbas Kiarostami’s meditations on borders.

Future scenarios modelling by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and RAND Corporation suggests that a US blockade would likely trigger a regional arms race, with Iran and Gulf states accelerating missile and drone programs, and China or Russia exploiting the vacuum to expand influence. Climate models indicate that prolonged conflict would disrupt renewable energy transitions in the Gulf, as fossil fuel revenues remain the primary funding source for state budgets. Alternative futures include a Gulf-wide energy grid powered by solar and wind, as proposed by the UAE’s *Masdar City* initiative, or a regional security pact modelled after ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation.

Marginalised voices include the 800,000+ migrant workers in the UAE and Qatar who face deportation or abuse if conflict disrupts labor markets, as well as the 1.5 million Bahraini Shia who have long protested discrimination tied to US-Saudi alliances. Iranian women’s rights activists, such as the *White Wednesdays* movement, have documented how sanctions and militarisation exacerbate gender-based violence by restricting access to healthcare and education. Additionally, the 2 million+ stateless Bidun in Kuwait and the 400,000+ Ahwazi Arabs in Iran are often erased from geopolitical analyses, despite their vulnerability to state violence and economic exclusion.