Escalating regional militarisation: Iranian strike on Israeli industrial zone reflects decades of proxy warfare and resource competition

The Bedouin communities of the Negev/Naqab desert, who have inhabited the region for centuries, face displacement from both Israeli industrial expansion and Iranian-backed militant groups. Their traditional land stewardship practices—such as seasonal migration and water conservation—are systematically eroded by state militarisation, yet their knowledge of conflict de-escalation (e.g., mediation through tribal elders) is ignored by policymakers. The industrial area struck in Ramat Hovav sits on land historically used by Bedouin pastoralists, whose exclusion from decision-making processes exemplifies the erasure of Indigenous sovereignty in modern geopolitics.

The current cycle of strikes and counter-strikes traces back to the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, when Iran first used ballistic missiles as a tool of asymmetric warfare against Iraqi targets, a tactic later adopted by Hezbollah in Lebanon. The 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 US invasion of Iraq further destabilised the region, creating vacuums filled by non-state actors like Hamas and Hezbollah, who now serve as proxies for Iran and Saudi Arabia. The 1979 Camp David Accords and subsequent US military aid to Israel institutionalised the militarisation of the Levant, making today’s strikes a predictable outcome of decades-long structural violence.

In West Africa, the ECOWAS region has developed conflict resolution mechanisms that blend traditional mediation (e.g., the role of 'kings' in Ghana) with modern diplomacy, offering a model to address proxy wars. In Southeast Asia, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has historically used 'non-interference' and track-two diplomacy to manage regional tensions, though its effectiveness is limited by great-power competition. The African Union’s 'Silence the Guns' initiative similarly frames security as a holistic challenge, integrating economic development and environmental justice—an approach absent in Middle Eastern diplomacy.

Ballistic missile strikes on industrial zones pose dual risks: immediate civilian casualties and long-term environmental contamination from industrial chemicals (e.g., ammonia, heavy metals). Studies on the 2020 Beirut port explosion show how industrial accidents in conflict zones can trigger cascading health crises, including respiratory diseases and cancer clusters. The use of missiles in populated areas violates international humanitarian law (e.g., Geneva Conventions), yet the lack of real-time environmental monitoring in conflict zones obscures these secondary harms.

Artists in the region, such as Palestinian poet Mahmoud Darwish and Iranian filmmaker Abbas Kiarostami, have long depicted conflict as a rupture in the human and ecological fabric, rather than a clash of states. Sufi traditions in Iran and the Levant frame violence as a distortion of divine unity ('tawhid'), advocating for spiritual renewal as a path to peace. In Israel, the 'Breaking the Silence' movement uses photography and testimony to humanise both occupiers and occupied, challenging the dehumanisation inherent in militarised narratives.

Scenario modelling by the RAND Corporation suggests that a full-scale war between Israel and Iran could displace 10 million people and trigger a regional famine due to disrupted grain imports (Iran and Israel are top wheat importers). Climate models indicate that water scarcity in the Jordan River Basin—already a flashpoint—will worsen by 2040, increasing the likelihood of resource-based conflicts. Alternative futures, such as a regional energy and water-sharing pact (modeled after the 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty), remain under-explored despite their potential to reduce militarisation.

Women in southern Israel, particularly those from Mizrahi and Ethiopian communities, report higher rates of PTSD due to repeated rocket attacks, yet their experiences are sidelined in favour of national security narratives. Palestinian citizens of Israel in the Negev face dual oppression: state-led displacement for military zones and environmental racism from industrial pollution. Refugees from Syria and Iraq in Lebanon and Jordan, who lack legal protections, are often scapegoated for regional instability, despite having no role in decision-making processes that fuel conflict.