US-Israeli strikes on Iran: A pattern of escalation without strategic endgame, revealing colonial militarism and regional proxy dynamics

Iran's strategic culture is deeply influenced by Persian imperial history and Shia Islamic traditions of martyrdom and resistance, which shape its deterrence policies. The concept of 'ghorbat' (strategic patience) in Shia theology mirrors Iran's approach to prolonged conflict, where short-term losses are accepted for long-term survival. Western analysts often dismiss these cultural frameworks as 'irrational' or 'sectarian,' failing to recognize them as sophisticated geopolitical tools. The 1979 revolution itself was a rejection of Western-backed monarchy, yet this historical rupture is rarely connected to modern Iranian strategy.

The current conflict is the latest iteration of a century-long struggle over West Asia's resources and sovereignty, beginning with the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement and the 1953 coup against Mossadegh. The 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, fueled by US and Gulf state support for Saddam Hussein, established the precedent for US-Israeli military coordination against Iran. The 2015 nuclear deal's collapse under Trump reversed diplomatic progress, while the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani marked a direct escalation of 'targeted killings' as a tool of statecraft. Each phase of this conflict has been justified by shifting narratives of 'security' or 'non-proliferation,' obscuring the continuity of imperial control.

In Latin America, similar patterns of US intervention (e.g., Chile 1973, Nicaragua 1980s) are framed as 'anti-communist' or 'anti-drug' operations, mirroring West Asia's 'anti-terror' justifications. African and Asian nations often view Iran's alliances with non-state actors as a form of 'asymmetric resistance' against Western dominance, a strategy also employed by Vietnam against the US or the ANC against apartheid South Africa. The framing of Iran as a 'threat' ignores how its nuclear program is a response to Israel's undeclared arsenal, which is rarely scrutinized in Western media. These parallels highlight a global pattern of Western states using military force to suppress challenges to their hegemony.

Military strikes on Iran's nuclear sites (e.g., Natanz, Fordow) are unlikely to halt proliferation due to Iran's dispersed and hardened facilities, as demonstrated by the 2010 Stuxnet cyberattack's limited long-term impact. Economic sanctions have proven counterproductive, reducing civilian access to medicine and food while strengthening hardliners, per studies from the International Crisis Group. The 'escalation ladder' model in conflict studies suggests that targeted strikes often lead to cycles of retaliation, increasing the risk of miscalculation and full-scale war. Western intelligence assessments (e.g., 2023 IAEA reports) consistently underestimate Iran's technical resilience and strategic adaptability.

Persian poetry and Islamic art often depict resistance as a spiritual duty, with figures like Imam Hussein's martyrdom at Karbala serving as a metaphor for defiance against tyranny. Iranian cinema (e.g., Abbas Kiarostami, Jafar Panahi) frequently explores themes of surveillance, occupation, and resilience, offering a counter-narrative to Western militarism. The concept of 'taqiyya' (religious dissimulation) in Shia Islam has been misrepresented as deception, when it is often a survival strategy against persecution. These cultural expressions challenge the dehumanization of Iranians in Western media, framing their actions as part of a broader struggle for dignity.

Scenario modeling by the RAND Corporation and other think tanks suggests that further strikes on Iran could lead to a regional war involving Hezbollah, Hamas, and possibly Iraq-based militias, with catastrophic humanitarian consequences. A negotiated de-escalation would require lifting sanctions, recognizing Iran's regional influence, and addressing Israel's nuclear ambiguity—steps currently deemed 'unrealistic' by Western policymakers. The rise of AI-driven drone warfare and cyberattacks could lower the threshold for conflict, making accidental escalation more likely. Long-term stability may depend on a new security architecture for West Asia, including guarantees for Iran's sovereignty and Israel's disarmament.

Iranian civilians, particularly in border regions like Ahvaz or Kurdistan, bear the brunt of sanctions and strikes but are rarely heard in Western media, which focuses on 'regime change' narratives. Palestinian and Lebanese civilians in Gaza and southern Lebanon face dual threats from Israeli strikes and Iranian-backed groups, yet their perspectives are sidelined in favor of geopolitical analysis. Iranian dissidents, including feminists and labor activists, are often co-opted by Western governments to justify intervention, erasing their agency in shaping Iran's future. The voices of Iranian Jews, Armenians, and other minorities—who have lived in Iran for millennia—are systematically excluded from Western discourse on Iran.