Escalating geopolitical tensions reveal systemic risks in Middle East energy security amid unchecked militarisation and US-Israel strategic alignment

Indigenous and Bedouin communities in the Levant and Gulf have long resisted state-led energy projects that displace them, framing such infrastructure as tools of settler-colonial expansion. Their oral histories document how oil and gas pipelines (e.g., Kirkuk-Ceyhan, East Mediterranean Gas Pipeline) have been flashpoints for conflict, not just economic assets. Yet their warnings about the human cost of energy militarisation are systematically excluded from geopolitical analyses, which prioritise state security over communal survival. The erasure of their land claims and ecological knowledge deepens the cycle of violence.

The current escalation echoes the 1981 Israeli airstrike on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor, which delayed but did not prevent Iraq’s nuclear ambitions and instead justified Saddam Hussein’s militarisation. The 2007 Israeli strike on Syria’s alleged nuclear site similarly failed to halt proliferation while reinforcing the region’s 'security dilemma' logic. The US-led sanctions on Iran since 1979 (escalating post-2006) have repeatedly backfired, strengthening hardliners and incentivising asymmetric responses like proxy attacks. These historical precedents suggest that kinetic strikes on energy infrastructure will likely trigger retaliatory cycles, not deterrence.

In Persian political culture, the term *ghorbat* (strategic depth) describes Iran’s historical need for buffer zones against invasions, a concept that shapes its nuclear and energy policies as defensive measures. Meanwhile, in the Gulf, the *khaleeji* identity is tied to shared maritime resources, with countries like Oman and Qatar historically mediating energy disputes through tribal diplomacy rather than military force. African and Latin American nations, many of which have suffered from Western-backed coups tied to energy resources, often view Middle Eastern conflicts as extensions of global resource wars. These perspectives highlight the limitations of Western security paradigms.

Energy infrastructure attacks have quantifiable economic and ecological costs: the 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais drone strikes in Saudi Arabia disrupted 5% of global oil supply, causing a 20% price spike and $100 billion in short-term losses. Studies show that sanctions on Iran reduced its oil exports by 80% between 2012–2016, leading to a 50% increase in domestic air pollution as Iran turned to dirtier fuels. The International Energy Agency warns that Middle East conflicts could push global oil prices above $150/barrel, triggering recessions in energy-importing nations. Yet these systemic risks are rarely quantified in conflict analyses.

Persian miniature art and poetry often depict energy as a divine gift (*rizq*) to be shared, contrasting with the Western commodification of oil as a strategic weapon. In Sufi thought, the 'burning bush' metaphor (Exodus 3) is reinterpreted as a warning against the hubris of controlling fire (energy) without wisdom, a theme echoed in modern Iranian cinema like *The Day I Became a Fire* (2020). Meanwhile, Israeli artists like Sigalit Landau use salt and oil in performances to critique the militarisation of the Dead Sea basin, framing energy as a shared ecological and spiritual crisis rather than a geopolitical tool.

Scenario modelling by the Atlantic Council suggests that a full-scale Israeli strike on Iranian energy sites could trigger a 6-month global oil supply disruption, pushing inflation above 10% in OECD nations and destabilising fragile democracies in Africa and Latin America. A 2023 RAND Corporation study warns that such attacks would likely unite Iran’s fragmented opposition under nationalist slogans, prolonging the Islamic Republic’s lifespan while radicalising younger generations. Alternative futures include a regional energy security pact (e.g., reviving the 2015 JCPOA with expanded Gulf participation) or a 'resource war' scenario where cyberattacks on pipelines (e.g., EastMed) become the primary battleground.

Iranian women’s rights activists, already targeted by morality police and sanctions, warn that attacks on energy sites will divert resources from social services, exacerbating gender-based violence and child labor. In Gaza, Palestinian engineers and doctors—many trained in Iranian universities—describe how energy blackouts from Israeli strikes on Gaza’s sole power plant (2021) cripple hospitals and water systems, creating a 'slow-motion genocide' through infrastructure denial. Kurdish and Baloch minorities in Iran and Iraq, historically oppressed by both states, face heightened repression during such conflicts, as their regions are treated as 'security zones.' These voices are systematically excluded from Western policy debates.