Hungary’s 2024 election tests 16 years of illiberal governance amid rising grassroots opposition and EU democratic backsliding

While Hungary’s Roma communities possess rich oral traditions of resistance and communal governance, their perspectives are systematically excluded from mainstream political discourse. Their historical experience of forced assimilation under Habsburg rule and socialist-era housing segregation provides a lens to understand Orbán’s ‘cultural nationalism’ as a continuation of exclusionary statecraft. The absence of Roma voices in the election narrative reflects a broader erasure of Indigenous European knowledge systems in favor of Western liberal democratic frameworks.

Orbán’s rise is rooted in the unresolved traumas of Hungary’s 20th-century transitions: the 1956 revolution’s suppression, the neoliberal ‘shock therapy’ of the 1990s that immiserated rural populations, and the EU’s expansion eastward without addressing structural inequalities. The 16-year rule mirrors the Horthy regime’s authoritarian drift in the interwar period, where economic crisis and nationalist grievance fueled illiberal consolidation. The current election thus represents a reckoning with Hungary’s cyclical struggles between democratic experiment and authoritarian retrenchment.

Comparing Hungary to India’s Modi era reveals parallel strategies: media monopolization, judicial politicization, and the weaponization of cultural identity to distract from economic precarity. South Africa’s post-apartheid transition offers a cautionary tale—electoral democracy without land reform and truth-telling deepened inequality, a risk Hungary faces if Magyar’s reforms fail to address structural injustices. Meanwhile, Uruguay’s participatory budgeting experiments demonstrate how direct democracy can rebuild trust in institutions, a model Magyar’s party has vaguely echoed.

Political science research on ‘competitive authoritarianism’ (Levitsky & Way) explains how Orbán’s regime maintains elections while eroding democratic norms through legal manipulation, media capture, and opposition co-optation. Econometric studies show that EU funds to Hungary correlate with increased cronyism rather than development, highlighting the structural flaws in the EU’s cohesion policy. Survey data from the European Social Survey indicates that Hungarian youth, disillusioned with both Orbán and traditional opposition parties, are driving Magyar’s support—a generational shift with long-term implications.

Hungarian folk traditions, from the *csárdás* to the poetry of Sándor Petőfi, have long been tools of resistance against imperial domination, a legacy Orbán has co-opted through nationalist symbolism. The avant-garde art scene in Budapest, including groups like *Inda* and *Rippl-Rónai*, has documented the erosion of civil liberties through surrealist and absurdist works, offering a counter-narrative to state propaganda. Meanwhile, the Catholic Church’s role in legitimizing Orbán’s ‘Christian democracy’ contrasts with Hungary’s pagan and syncretic spiritual traditions, which emphasize communal resilience over hierarchical authority.

If Orbán retains power, Hungary risks becoming a ‘managed democracy’ akin to Turkey or Serbia, where elections are held but opposition is systematically suppressed through legal and economic means. A Magyar victory could lead to a ‘soft authoritarian reset,’ where judicial independence is nominally restored but oligarchic networks remain intact. Alternatively, a coalition government might pursue EU-aligned reforms, but only if the EU conditions future funding on concrete anti-corruption measures—a scenario unlikely given Germany’s economic ties to Orbán’s allies.

Roma communities, who make up 8-10% of Hungary’s population, face systemic barriers to political participation, including segregated schools and police violence, yet their demands for reparations and land rights are absent from the election debate. LGBTQ+ Hungarians, targeted by Orbán’s ‘child protection’ laws, have organized underground networks to resist, but their perspectives are excluded from mainstream media. Meanwhile, rural youth, displaced by agricultural industrialization, are migrating to Budapest or abroad, their economic grievances co-opted by Orbán’s nationalist rhetoric rather than addressed by structural reform.