Burkina Faso’s escalating violence reflects neocolonial militarisation and resource extraction conflicts, with 1,800+ civilian deaths since 2023

Burkina Faso’s indigenous communities, particularly the Fulani pastoralists, have long navigated resource conflicts through customary governance systems that prioritise dialogue and shared access to land. These systems have been systematically undermined by state-backed mining concessions and counterinsurgency policies that criminalise traditional livelihoods. The erasure of indigenous peacebuilding mechanisms in mainstream narratives reflects a broader pattern of epistemic violence in conflict analysis.

The current violence must be situated within the legacy of French colonial extraction, particularly the forced labour systems of the early 20th century and the post-independence neocolonial arrangements that maintained French control over Burkina Faso’s uranium and gold resources. The 2014 popular uprising against Blaise Compaoré, who ruled for 27 years with French support, marked a turning point, but the subsequent instability was exacerbated by France’s Operation Barkhane and the 2022 military coups that rejected Western influence. Historical parallels include Algeria’s post-colonial civil war and Chad’s French-backed counterinsurgency failures.

Comparative studies of conflict in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa reveal that communities with strong kinship networks and decentralised governance (e.g., Somalia’s clan systems) often exhibit greater resilience to insurgency than states reliant on external military support. In Burkina Faso, the Mossi ethnic group’s traditional chieftaincy system has been co-opted by the state, while jihadist groups exploit Fulani grievances over land dispossession—a dynamic mirrored in Mali’s Dogon-Fulani conflicts. Western media’s focus on 'terrorism' obscures these nuanced social fabrics.

Academic research on the Sahel insurgency highlights the role of climate change in exacerbating resource scarcity, with droughts since the 1970s displacing pastoralist communities and creating fertile ground for recruitment by jihadist groups. Studies also show that military-led counterterrorism operations in the region have a 60% higher civilian casualty rate than non-state actor attacks, contradicting the 'protector' narrative. The lack of peer-reviewed data on Burkina Faso’s conflict drivers reflects the marginalisation of African scholarship in global security discourse.

Burkinabè oral traditions, such as the griot storytelling of the Mossi people, frame conflict as a disruption of cosmic balance, requiring rituals of restoration rather than retribution. The Mossi’s *Naam* philosophy, which emphasises collective well-being and ancestral wisdom, offers an alternative to the state’s militarised 'security' paradigm. Meanwhile, Sufi brotherhoods in the Sahel have historically mediated disputes, a role now threatened by both jihadist puritanism and state repression.

Scenario modelling suggests that Burkina Faso’s conflict will escalate if current trends continue, with projections of 3,000+ civilian deaths by 2028 and the potential collapse of the state’s authority in rural areas. Alternative futures include a 'resource curse' trajectory, where gold mining revenues fuel further militarisation, or a 'communal resilience' path, where traditional governance systems are revitalised with state support. The rise of drone warfare and AI-driven surveillance in the Sahel could further entrench authoritarianism, as seen in Niger’s post-coup trajectory.

Women’s groups like the *Réseau des Femmes pour la Paix au Burkina Faso* have documented how sexual violence is weaponised by both state forces and armed groups, yet their reports are sidelined in favour of elite-driven narratives. Youth activists, particularly in urban centres like Ouagadougou, articulate grievances over unemployment and foreign interference but are excluded from peace negotiations. The Fulani minority, often stereotyped as 'complicit' with jihadists, faces double marginalisation in both state and international media coverage.