UK greenlights US strikes on Iran via British bases: escalation of proxy warfare in Persian Gulf energy corridors

Indigenous Gulf communities—such as the Ahwazi Arabs in Iran’s Khuzestan province or the Mahra in Oman’s Dhofar region—have long resisted state militarization of their lands, yet their resistance is framed as 'terrorism' in Western media. Traditional Bedouin knowledge of desert trade routes and water sources could offer alternative security models, but these are dismissed as 'backward' in favor of high-tech surveillance and drone warfare. The erasure of these communities’ agency reinforces the cycle of violence by treating the Gulf as a chessboard for great powers.

The current escalation echoes the 1980s 'Tanker War,' when US and Iranian forces clashed directly in the Gulf, leading to hundreds of civilian casualties and economic disruptions. The 1953 CIA-backed coup in Iran, which overthrew democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh for nationalizing oil, set a precedent for US interventionism that Iranians still cite in their security calculus. The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), fueled by Western arms sales to both sides, demonstrates how external powers prolong conflicts to maintain influence.

In Iran, the concept of 'defensive deterrence' (mantiq-e man’-e tahdid) is central to military strategy, framed as a response to US-Israeli 'maximum pressure' campaigns. Gulf Arab states, while publicly condemning Iran, privately coordinate with Israel and the US to contain Tehran, revealing a pragmatic—if unstable—alliance of convenience. Meanwhile, in Iraq, where Iranian-backed militias operate, local Shia communities often view these groups as protectors against Sunni extremism, complicating Western narratives of 'Iranian aggression.'

Satellite data from NASA and ESA shows a 30% increase in oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz between 2010 and 2020, correlating with a rise in reported 'incidents' like seizures and drone strikes. Studies by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) indicate that 60% of arms sales to the Middle East originate from the US, UK, and France, directly fueling regional arms races. Declassified CIA documents reveal that US naval presence in the Gulf has historically been justified by 'freedom of navigation,' despite evidence that most disruptions are linked to sanctions enforcement.

Persian poetry and Islamic art often depict the sea as a sacred space, with the Strait of Hormuz symbolizing both vulnerability and resilience. Iranian filmmaker Abbas Kiarostami’s work critiques state militarization by focusing on rural communities displaced by war, while Saudi artist Ahmed Mater’s installations explore the spiritual cost of oil dependency. In Bahrain, Shiite mourning rituals (Ashura) frequently reference martyrdom in resistance to colonial and monarchical oppression, framing violence as a moral struggle.

Scenario modeling by the RAND Corporation suggests a 40% chance of direct US-Iran conflict within 5 years if current trends continue, with spillover effects including cyberattacks on global shipping and oil price spikes exceeding $150/barrel. A 'Gulf Security Compact' proposed by Oman in 2021—calling for regional dialogue and arms control—has been ignored by Western powers in favor of military deterrence. Climate models indicate that rising sea levels in the Gulf will exacerbate resource conflicts, making water and energy infrastructure prime targets for future strikes.

Yemeni fishermen in the Bab el-Mandeb strait face daily harassment from both Houthi forces and coalition navies, with 80% reporting income losses due to blockades since 2015. Iranian women’s rights activists argue that sanctions disproportionately harm civilians, particularly women-led households, while male elites in Tehran profit from black-market trade. Bahraini human rights defenders, like those in the Al-Wefaq opposition, have documented how US naval bases enable repression of pro-democracy movements, linking local struggles to global militarization.