Systemic ceasefire in Lebanon exposes Israel’s regional deterrence strategy amid failed US mediation and displaced civilian crisis

Palestinian and Lebanese communities articulate resistance through land-based epistemologies, where displacement is not an accident but a continuation of Ottoman-era land dispossession and Zionist settler projects. Indigenous Druze and Bedouin groups in the Galilee and Bekaa Valleys trace their erasure to 1948 and 1967, framing current crises as part of a 75-year continuum of ethnic cleansing. Israeli archaeology and forestry policies (e.g., JNF land grabs) are tools of cultural erasure, aligning with global patterns of settler-colonial violence against Indigenous peoples.

The 2024 truce echoes the 2006 ceasefire (UNSCR 1701) and the 1982 US-brokered evacuation of PLO fighters from Beirut, both of which entrenched Hezbollah’s power while failing to address root causes. The 1948 Nakba and 1967 Six-Day War set precedents for Israel’s use of 'evacuation warnings' as psychological warfare, while Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war institutionalised sectarian militarisation. US-Israel 'temporary pauses' have historically been preludes to larger offensives (e.g., 2014 Gaza War), suggesting this truce may be a tactical delay rather than a durable solution.

In South Asia, the truce’s framing as a 'Trump-mediated' event mirrors how Western powers brokered 'peace' in Kashmir or Sri Lanka, often exacerbating local conflicts. African anti-colonial movements (e.g., ANC, FRELIMO) would critique this as a 'peace without justice,' where ceasefires preserve structural violence. Indigenous Māori in Aotearoa-New Zealand draw parallels to their land struggles, noting how 'temporary' state violence (e.g., 1860s land confiscations) becomes permanent through legal fictions of 'peacekeeping.'

Israeli evacuation warnings exploit cognitive biases (e.g., loss aversion, status quo bias) to induce mass displacement, a tactic documented in behavioural economics and military psychology. The Dahiya Doctrine (disproportionate response) is empirically linked to higher civilian casualties and long-term radicalisation, per studies in conflict studies (e.g., *Journal of Peace Research*). Lebanon’s infrastructure collapse (post-2019 financial crisis) amplifies vulnerability, as shown in WHO reports on healthcare system fragmentation.

Lebanese artists like Walid Raad and Palestinian poets like Mahmoud Darwish frame the truce as a 'moment of suspended time,' where art becomes a tool to resist erasure. The call to prayer (*adhan*) in southern Lebanon is interrupted by drone strikes, turning sacred space into a battleground—a phenomenon mirrored in Yemen’s war poetry. Israeli military bands play nationalist anthems during operations, weaponising music as a tool of psychological warfare, while Palestinian dabke dancers in refugee camps use folk art to reclaim agency.

Scenario modelling suggests that without addressing root causes (settler expansion, US arms flows, Lebanese state collapse), this truce will likely collapse within 6-12 months, leading to a wider regional war involving Iran-backed militias and potential Israeli strikes on Iran. Climate change exacerbates risks: water scarcity in the Litani River basin could trigger new conflicts over agricultural land, while heatwaves in Gaza and southern Lebanon increase civilian vulnerability to disease. A 'just peace' would require demilitarisation of southern Lebanon, reparations for displaced communities, and a regional non-aggression pact.

Palestinian refugees in Lebanon (12 official camps) face apartheid-like conditions, denied citizenship and subjected to forced labour, yet their resistance (e.g., Nahr al-Bared camp rebuilding) is ignored. Lebanese women’s groups (e.g., *FE-MALE*) document how displacement increases gender-based violence, framing the truce as a 'man’s war' that excludes their security needs. Bedouin communities in the Galilee and Negev are systematically displaced under Israel’s 'Prawer Plan' parallel to Lebanon’s crises, yet their transnational solidarity is erased in Western media.