Geopolitical tensions escalate as Indian-flagged vessels targeted in Strait of Hormuz amid systemic maritime insecurity and energy corridor vulnerabilities

Indigenous maritime knowledge systems of the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean—such as the *barasti* (palm-frond boat-building) traditions of Oman or the *kettuvallam* (traditional barge) networks of Kerala—have historically ensured safe passage through conflict zones by leveraging local networks of trust and decentralized governance. These systems were systematically dismantled by colonial powers that imposed centralized control over trade routes, replacing them with state-backed naval patrols that prioritize military objectives over community safety. Today, these traditional practices persist in informal sectors but are marginalized in official security narratives, despite their proven resilience in navigating geopolitical turbulence.

The Strait of Hormuz has been a flashpoint for over two centuries, from British colonial control in the 19th century to the 1953 CIA-backed coup in Iran that reshaped the region’s energy politics. The 1980s ‘Tanker War’ during the Iran-Iraq War demonstrated how sanctions and asymmetric warfare can destabilize global energy markets, a pattern repeated in modern sanctions regimes against Iran and Venezuela. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the subsequent Sykes-Picot agreements imposed artificial borders that fragmented indigenous governance systems, creating the conditions for modern state conflicts over resources.

In the Indian Ocean world, maritime security has traditionally been framed as a shared responsibility among coastal communities, with trade guilds (*mahajans*) and religious networks (e.g., Sufi brotherhoods) acting as informal arbiters of disputes. The Chinese *Maritime Silk Road* concept, revived under the Belt and Road Initiative, offers an alternative to Western naval dominance by emphasizing infrastructure investment and cultural exchange over military presence. However, these models are often co-opted by state actors to serve geopolitical interests, as seen in China’s dual-use port developments in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, which blur the line between economic cooperation and strategic control.

Satellite tracking of maritime traffic (e.g., AIS data) reveals that 30% of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz operate under flags of convenience, complicating attribution of attacks and enabling state and non-state actors to exploit legal ambiguities. Studies on maritime choke points show that even minor disruptions in Hormuz can cause global oil price spikes of 5-10%, disproportionately affecting energy-importing nations in the Global South. The lack of a unified maritime security framework—despite UNCLOS—leaves 60% of the world’s oil and 40% of gas trade vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, a systemic risk unaddressed by current governance structures.

Poetic and spiritual traditions of the region, such as the Persian *Rumi*’s metaphors of the ‘ship of humanity’ navigating stormy seas, frame maritime insecurity as a collective challenge requiring wisdom and humility. In Hindu and Buddhist traditions, the ocean (*samudra*) symbolizes both abundance and chaos, with deities like Varuna (Hindu) and Avalokiteshvara (Buddhist) invoked for protection during voyages. Modern maritime art, such as Omani *sadu* (textile) weavings depicting ships, reflects a cultural memory of resilience that contrasts with the militarized imagery of Western security narratives.

Scenario modeling by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a 20% reduction in global oil supply, leading to price shocks of $150+ per barrel and triggering recessions in energy-dependent economies. Alternative routing options (e.g., via the Cape of Good Hope) would add 10-15 days to voyages, increasing costs and carbon emissions by 20-30%. Climate models project that rising sea levels and increased storm intensity in the Gulf will exacerbate port vulnerabilities, requiring adaptive infrastructure investments within the next decade.

Fishermen and port workers in the Persian Gulf—often migrant laborers from South Asia—face the highest risks from attacks but have no representation in security dialogues. Women in coastal communities, who manage informal trade networks, are systematically excluded from decision-making despite their critical role in sustaining local economies. Indigenous groups like the Baloch in Iran and Pakistan, and the Ahwazi Arabs in Iran, have long resisted state control over the strait but are framed as ‘terrorists’ in mainstream narratives, obscuring their legitimate grievances over resource exploitation and environmental degradation.