Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Global Oil Chokepoint: Systemic Risks of U.S.-Iran Proxy Conflicts in Strait of Hormuz

Gulf coastal communities, including Arab, Persian, and Baloch fishermen, have relied on the Strait’s ecological balance for centuries, but their traditional knowledge of seasonal currents and fish migrations is ignored in favor of state security narratives. The Strait’s closure would devastate local economies dependent on artisanal fishing and pearl diving, yet these voices are absent from geopolitical analyses. Indigenous Omani and Emirati communities have long practiced sustainable marine resource management, but their practices are eroded by oil-driven militarization.

The Strait of Hormuz has been a flashpoint since the 1950s, when the U.S. and UK backed the Shah’s regime to secure oil flows, setting a precedent for external intervention in Gulf affairs. The 1980s 'Tanker War' during the Iran-Iraq conflict saw similar threats to close the Strait, revealing how sanctions and blockades escalate into direct military confrontation. The 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities and 2021 drone strikes on UAE targets show how regional conflicts are increasingly fought through asymmetric warfare, with Hormuz as a symbolic and strategic target.

In Shia Islamic tradition, the Strait is seen as a 'gate of the unseen' (Bab al-Mandab), linking the material and spiritual worlds, which contrasts with Western secular framings of it as a 'resource highway.' Gulf Arab states, while dependent on U.S. security guarantees, also engage in backchannel diplomacy with Iran, reflecting a pragmatic balance absent in Western reporting. In India, the crisis is often framed through the lens of energy security, but Hindu nationalist rhetoric sometimes portrays Iran as a 'Shia threat,' ignoring its role as a counterbalance to Saudi influence.

The Strait’s closure would disrupt 20% of global oil flows and 30% of liquefied natural gas, triggering price shocks that disproportionately harm Global South economies dependent on energy imports. Marine ecosystems in the Strait are already stressed by oil spills, desalination plants, and shipping traffic, with coral reefs and dugong populations at risk. Scientific models show that even temporary blockades could trigger cascading economic crises, but these risks are downplayed in favor of short-term geopolitical posturing.

Persian miniatures and Gulf poetry often depict the Strait as a liminal space between land and sea, symbolizing both abundance and peril. Iranian cinema, such as Abbas Kiarostami’s films, explores the human cost of militarization along the Strait, while Saudi and Emirati art often glorifies oil wealth as divine blessing. Spiritual leaders in both Shia and Sunni traditions have called for dialogue, but their voices are drowned out by state propaganda and nationalist rhetoric.

Scenario modeling suggests that a prolonged closure could reduce global oil supply by 5-10 million barrels per day, triggering recessions in energy-importing nations and accelerating the shift to renewable energy in the West. The crisis could also push Gulf states to diversify their economies away from oil, but only if external powers (U.S., China, Russia) allow it. Long-term, the Strait’s militarization risks normalizing 'chokepoint geopolitics,' where resource flows are held hostage to state power, undermining global stability.

Iranian civilians face economic collapse due to U.S. sanctions, with hyperinflation and medicine shortages, yet their suffering is framed as a 'regime problem' rather than a humanitarian crisis. Israeli and Palestinian communities in border regions live under constant threat of escalation, but their voices are excluded from narratives that reduce the conflict to state actors. Yemeni fishermen and Iraqi oil workers, caught in the crossfire of proxy wars, are rarely heard, despite bearing the brunt of ecological and economic fallout.