Geopolitical realignment: Iran’s strategic leverage over Hormuz Strait amid US electoral narratives and regional power vacuums

Indigenous and local communities along the Strait—including Arab, Baloch, and Persian groups—have long resisted state-centric narratives that frame the Strait as a purely geopolitical asset. Their traditional knowledge of seasonal fishing routes, smuggling networks, and ecological cycles offers alternative models of resource governance that prioritize communal survival over state sovereignty. However, their perspectives are systematically excluded from energy security debates, which are dominated by state and corporate actors.

The 1953 coup against Mossadegh, the 1979 revolution, and the 1980s Tanker War reveal a pattern of US and UK interventionism that has shaped Iran’s strategic calculus. The Strait’s militarization is not a recent phenomenon but a legacy of British colonial control (1820–1971) and the post-WWII oil order, where Western powers treated the Gulf as a resource hinterland. The 2003 Iraq War further destabilized the region, creating vacuums exploited by non-state actors and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

In the Gulf, the Strait is often framed as a shared heritage, with Arab and Persian communities historically engaging in pearl diving, trade, and maritime festivals that transcend modern borders. Iranian and Arab scholars have long debated the Strait’s status, with some arguing for a 'Gulf Commons' model to prevent militarization. Western media, however, tends to depict the region through a lens of perpetual conflict, ignoring the cultural and economic interdependencies that persist despite political tensions.

The Strait’s geostrategic importance is often quantified in terms of oil flows (20% of global supply) and military choke points, but scientific analyses of its ecological fragility—such as algal blooms from desalination plants or oil spill risks—are rarely integrated into security debates. Studies on maritime traffic patterns show that 70% of vessels are commercial, not military, yet risk assessments focus on geopolitical threats rather than environmental or logistical vulnerabilities. The lack of transboundary data sharing between Iran and Gulf states exacerbates these risks.

The Strait’s symbolism in Persian poetry (e.g., Hafez’s references to the 'Sea of Hormuz') and Arab oral traditions frames it as a site of both danger and divine beauty, contrasting with its reduction to a 'chokepoint' in Western discourse. Iranian cinema, such as Abbas Kiarostami’s 'The Wind Will Carry Us,' critiques the militarization of landscapes, while Gulf artists like Bahraini Ahmed Al Safi use calligraphy to reclaim the Strait as a cultural, not just strategic, entity. These artistic narratives challenge the securitization of everyday life in the region.

Scenario modeling by the Wilson Center suggests that a 30% reduction in Gulf oil exports due to Strait disruptions could trigger a 15% global oil price spike, with cascading effects on food security and migration. Alternative futures include a 'Gulf Energy Union' (proposed by Oman in the 2000s) or a 'Strait of Hormuz Free Trade Zone' to depoliticize the waterway. However, current US policies—such as the 2020 'maximum pressure' campaign—are accelerating Iran’s pivot to China and Russia, reducing Western leverage over regional dynamics.

Marginalised voices include the Arab minority in Iran’s Khuzestan province, who face discrimination and environmental neglect from oil extraction, and the Baloch communities in both Iran and Pakistan, who are caught in cross-border counterinsurgency operations. Women’s groups in the Gulf, such as Bahrain’s Women’s Union, have long advocated for demilitarization, but their calls are drowned out by state and corporate narratives. The framing also erases the plight of migrant workers in the UAE and Qatar, who build the infrastructure enabling Western energy security but have no political voice.