Systemic violence in Pakistan’s northwest: Police station bombing reflects decades of militarised state and insurgent power struggles

Pashtun tribal structures, governed by jirga systems and Pashtunwali ethics, have been systematically dismantled by state militarisation and insurgent coercion, eroding traditional conflict-resolution mechanisms. Local elders and women’s councils, once mediators in disputes, are now sidelined as both the military and militants impose parallel justice systems. The bombing’s targeting of a police station—a symbol of state intrusion—highlights how state security policies have alienated the very communities they claim to protect, pushing some toward insurgent groups as a form of resistance.

The roots of this violence trace back to British colonial policies in the late 19th century, which divided Pashtun lands and used tribal militias as proxy forces, a strategy later adopted by Pakistan’s military to control the region. The 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and subsequent U.S.-backed Mujahideen proxy war further destabilised the area, with Pakistan’s ISI channeling arms and fighters into Afghanistan while tolerating militant groups in its tribal belt. The 2001 U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and drone campaigns (e.g., Obama-era strikes) exacerbated local grievances, fuelling recruitment into groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Similar patterns of state-sponsored militancy and insurgent retaliation can be seen in Colombia, where paramilitary groups (AUC) and the FARC emerged from Cold War-era proxy wars, with the U.S. funding counterinsurgency efforts while ignoring civilian casualties. In the Philippines, the military’s use of militias against communist insurgents (NPA) has led to widespread displacement and extrajudicial killings, mirroring Pakistan’s tribal region dynamics. Across these cases, external intervention (U.S., USSR, China) has exacerbated local conflicts, turning them into proxy battlegrounds for global powers.

Research from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) shows a 400% increase in militant attacks in Pakistan’s tribal regions since 2004, correlating with U.S. drone strikes and Pakistan’s military operations (e.g., Operation Zarb-e-Azb). Studies in *Journal of Peace Research* link economic deprivation and state repression to higher insurgent recruitment rates, with Pashtun districts like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa exhibiting some of the highest poverty rates in Pakistan. The use of suicide bombings as a tactic is statistically linked to high levels of state violence and foreign occupation, per data from the *Global Terrorism Database*.

Pashtun poetry and music, such as the landay form, have long served as a medium to critique state oppression and war, with poets like Rahman Baba (17th century) lamenting the loss of tribal autonomy. The bombing’s targeting of a police station—a modern institution alien to Pashtun traditions—symbolises the clash between colonial-era governance and indigenous ways of life. Sufi shrines in the region, once centres of interfaith harmony, have been destroyed or co-opted by militants, reflecting the broader spiritual desecration of the land. Artistic expressions of resistance, like the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), are often censored, further silencing alternative narratives.

If current trends continue, Pakistan’s tribal regions may see a 200% increase in militant activity by 2030, driven by climate-induced resource scarcity (e.g., water shortages) and continued U.S.-China geopolitical competition in Central Asia. Scenario modelling by the *International Crisis Group* suggests that without addressing structural grievances—land reform, tribal autonomy, and economic development—insurgent groups will likely splinter into smaller, more radical factions, making conflict resolution even harder. A potential pathway to de-escalation involves demilitarising the region, reviving jirga systems, and negotiating with factions that have local legitimacy, as seen in Aceh’s post-tsunami peace process.

Pashtun women, often excluded from formal peace processes, have organised through groups like the *Awaz Foundation* to document state abuses and demand accountability, but their voices are systematically excluded from mainstream narratives. Displaced communities in camps like Jalozai face discrimination and lack access to education or healthcare, with 60% of children out of school in some areas, per UN reports. Minority groups like the Kalasha and Sikhs have been targeted by both militants and state forces, with their cultural heritage under threat. The PTM’s demands for justice for Pashtun victims of extrajudicial killings have been met with arrests and internet shutdowns, highlighting the state’s suppression of dissent.