US-Iran high-level talks: systemic distrust rooted in 75 years of geopolitical intervention and sanctions

Indigenous and regional minority perspectives—such as those of Iran’s Azeri, Kurdish, Baloch, and Arab communities—are systematically excluded from mainstream narratives, despite their lived experiences of state repression and foreign interference. These groups often bear the brunt of both US sanctions and Iranian state violence, yet their calls for autonomy or federalism are dismissed as 'separatist' rather than legitimate political aspirations. Their knowledge of transnational solidarity networks (e.g., Kurdish movements across Iraq, Syria, and Turkey) could offer alternative models for de-escalation rooted in decentralized governance.

The distrust between the US and Iran is not an abstract geopolitical quirk but the result of 75 years of intervention: the 1953 coup, Operation Ajax, the 1980s Iran-Iraq War where the US armed Saddam, and the 2015 JCPOA’s collapse due to US withdrawal. Each episode reinforced a cycle of retaliation and escalation, with sanctions becoming a tool of economic warfare that disproportionately targets civilians. Historical precedents like the 1979 hostage crisis or the 1988 Iran Air Flight 655 shootdown are weaponized in domestic narratives to justify perpetual hostility.

In the Global South, the Vance-Ghalibaf talks are often interpreted as a rare instance of a non-Western state resisting US hegemony, with Iran’s defiance framed as a symbol of anti-imperial resistance akin to Cuba or Venezuela. This perspective contrasts sharply with Western media’s focus on Iran’s nuclear program or regional proxies, which are often exaggerated to justify containment policies. Cross-culturally, the talks also reflect a broader shift where non-aligned states (e.g., India, South Africa) are increasingly mediating conflicts to avoid US or Chinese dominance, challenging the binary of US-Iran confrontation.

Economic sanctions have been empirically shown to harm civilian populations more than elites, with studies (e.g., from the UN, IMF) documenting increased poverty, infant mortality, and brain drain in sanctioned countries like Iran. The JCPOA’s partial success in reducing sanctions demonstrated that diplomacy could stabilize regional tensions, but its collapse due to US withdrawal proved that sanctions are often used as a tool of coercion rather than leverage. Scientific modeling of sanctions’ impacts (e.g., via the *Journal of Peace Research*) shows they rarely achieve stated policy goals but instead entrench authoritarianism by scapegoating external enemies.

Persian poetry and Sufi mysticism often frame conflict as a test of patience and wisdom, with figures like Rumi and Hafez emphasizing reconciliation over vengeance—a stark contrast to the militarized narratives dominating US-Iran relations. Iranian cinema (e.g., Abbas Kiarostami’s *Taste of Cherry*) and music (e.g., Googoosh’s post-revolution exile) reflect the cultural trauma of displacement and censorship, offering a lens to understand the human cost of geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, Shia mourning rituals (e.g., Ashura) are politicized by both sides to mobilize nationalist sentiment, turning religious grief into a tool of state propaganda.

Scenario modeling suggests that without addressing structural grievances (e.g., sanctions, regime change threats), any high-level talks will likely fail or be short-lived, as seen with past agreements like the Algiers Accords (1981) or the 2015 JCPOA. A potential future involves a regional security framework (e.g., inspired by ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation) that includes Iran, Gulf states, and the US, but this requires dismantling the US’s 'maximum pressure' policy. Alternative futures include a multipolar world where China and Russia broker deals, sidelining US influence but risking further entrenchment of authoritarian regimes.

Marginalized voices include Iranian feminists (e.g., the *One Million Signatures* campaign) who face repression for advocating women’s rights, as well as labor activists (e.g., Haft Tappeh sugar workers) who protest economic mismanagement and sanctions. In the US, Iranian-American communities—often split between diaspora activism and family ties to Iran—are silenced by both governments, with dissenters labeled as 'traitors' or 'agents of foreign influence.' Exiled Iranian journalists and dissidents (e.g., Masih Alinejad) are often co-opted by Western media to amplify anti-regime narratives, further distorting their perspectives.