Turkey’s COP31 presidency frames climate action as geopolitical leverage amid global North-South tensions over finance and accountability

Indigenous Anatolian communities, such as the Yörüks (nomadic pastoralists), have sustained climate-resilient practices for millennia, including rotational grazing and water conservation in semi-arid ecosystems. These systems are eroded by state-led industrialization and COP processes that prioritize market-based solutions over traditional ecological knowledge. Turkey’s COP31 framing ignores the *Orta Anadolu* region’s drought-resistant crops, which could inform national adaptation strategies if integrated into policy. The exclusion of Indigenous voices in climate negotiations mirrors global patterns where Indigenous knowledge is sidelined despite its proven efficacy in disaster risk reduction.

Turkey’s climate policy trajectory reflects its Ottoman and Republican legacies, including centralized water management that prioritized hydroelectric dams over ecological balance. The 1992 UNFCCC and subsequent COPs have repeatedly failed to address the 'common but differentiated responsibilities' gap, a structural flaw Turkey now inherits as COP31 president. Historical precedents like the 2015 Paris Agreement’s voluntary pledges reveal how host nations manipulate outcomes—e.g., Poland’s COP24 coal subsidies—to serve domestic interests. The 1970s oil crises and Turkey’s subsequent energy diversification underscore the cyclical nature of fossil fuel dependency in emerging economies.

In Latin America, climate justice movements like *COP en las Calles* (COP in the Streets) challenge state-led negotiations by centering grassroots resistance to extractivism, a model absent in Turkey’s COP31 narrative. African COP presidencies, such as Morocco’s COP22, emphasized South-South cooperation and adaptation finance, contrasting with Turkey’s focus on 'global action' without specifying accountability mechanisms. In Southeast Asia, Indigenous communities in Indonesia and the Philippines have successfully halted coal projects through legal challenges, offering a template for Turkey’s civil society to leverage international law. The lack of cross-cultural exchange in Turkey’s framing reinforces a Eurocentric view of climate governance as a state-driven process.

Scientific consensus confirms that Turkey’s 1.5°C warming trajectory requires a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, yet current policies project only a 21% cut under existing plans. Peer-reviewed studies highlight the inefficacy of carbon markets in Turkey, where offsets are dominated by industrial projects that fail to deliver additional emissions reductions. Research on renewable energy potential in Turkey’s Aegean and Marmara regions shows that solar and wind could meet 70% of demand by 2035, yet grid integration and storage challenges are under-discussed in COP31 planning. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that delayed action in middle-income countries like Turkey risks overshooting tipping points in the Mediterranean basin.

Turkish poet Nâzım Hikmet’s works, such as *Human Landscapes*, frame nature as a site of collective struggle, a perspective that could reframe climate action as a cultural and ethical imperative rather than a technical challenge. Sufi traditions in Anatolia emphasize *fütüvvet* (virtuous stewardship) of the earth, offering a spiritual counter-narrative to extractive capitalism that COP31’s technocratic framing ignores. Contemporary Turkish cinema, like *The Mountain* (2015), depicts climate-induced displacement in rural Anatolia, yet these artistic critiques are excluded from policy discussions. The absence of spiritual and artistic dimensions in climate governance reflects a broader secular-materialist bias in international negotiations.

Scenario modeling by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests Turkey could achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 with a 3% annual GDP investment in renewables and grid modernization, yet COP31’s agenda lacks concrete financing mechanisms. Climate risk projections for Turkey indicate a 30% increase in heatwave mortality by 2050 under current policies, with disproportionate impacts on informal workers and refugees. Alternative futures, such as a 'Green New Deal for Anatolia,' could integrate renewable energy with agroecological practices, but these require cross-sectoral collaboration beyond state-led diplomacy. The failure to model 'just transition' scenarios risks locking Turkey into a high-carbon pathway, mirroring the 'resource curse' dynamics seen in oil-dependent economies.

Climate-vulnerable groups in Turkey, including smallholder farmers in the Konya Basin facing desertification and Syrian refugees in Hatay displaced by drought, are excluded from COP31’s decision-making processes. Women-led cooperatives in Turkey’s Black Sea region, which manage seed banks and agroforestry systems, are sidelined despite their proven role in climate adaptation. The narrative centers state actors and corporate interests while erasing the testimonies of communities affected by coal plant pollution in Zonguldak and lignite mining in Afşin-Elbistan. Global climate justice movements, such as *Climate Reparations Now*, demand debt cancellation for Global South nations, a demand Turkey’s presidency does not address.