US naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz: systemic risks of militarised energy choke points in global trade

Indigenous Gulf communities, including Bahraini and Omani pearl divers, historically navigated the Strait using celestial and tidal knowledge, framing maritime space as a living ecosystem rather than a geopolitical asset. Their oral traditions document seasonal currents and fish migrations, offering low-tech resilience strategies against modern disruptions. However, these knowledge systems are excluded from policy discussions, which prioritise high-tech surveillance and military solutions.

The Strait has been a flashpoint since the 19th century, when British colonial powers enforced 'gunboat diplomacy' to control Gulf trade routes. The 1956 Suez Crisis demonstrated how choke points become targets during systemic energy transitions, while the 1980s Tanker War showed how asymmetric responses (e.g., Iran’s mine-laying) can escalate conflicts beyond local control. These precedents reveal a pattern of 'choke point wars' tied to fossil fuel dependencies.

In East Asian traditions, maritime choke points like the Malacca Strait are framed as 'dragon gates' requiring harmonious passage (*he xie*), where force is a last resort. African maritime cultures, such as Swahili dhow navigators, use collective decision-making to avoid conflict, contrasting with Western 'freedom of navigation' assertions that often provoke escalation. These perspectives highlight the Strait as a shared commons rather than a contested zone.

Satellite data shows that 30% of global oil trade and 20% of LNG passes through the Strait, with choke points creating systemic risks during geopolitical tensions. Studies on maritime traffic patterns reveal that even temporary disruptions can cause global oil price spikes of 10-15%, disproportionately affecting Global South economies. However, risk assessments rarely model the cascading effects of climate-induced droughts on Gulf water supplies, which could exacerbate resource conflicts.

Persian miniatures depict the Strait as a site of divine wrath (*ghadab*) when human hubris disrupts natural balance, echoing Sufi teachings on moderation (*i’tidal*). Gulf poets like Qatari Mohammed al-Ajami frame the Strait as a 'mother of pearls' (*umm al-lu’lu’*), symbolising both abundance and fragility. These artistic narratives offer metaphors for systemic interdependence, absent in militarised discourse.

Scenario modelling by the International Energy Agency suggests that a prolonged Strait blockade could reduce global oil supply by 5-7 million barrels/day, triggering a 20% price surge and recession in import-dependent economies. Climate models project that by 2050, reduced water flow in the Strait (due to Himalayan glacier melt) could increase salinity, disrupting desalination plants and food security for 60 million people. Alternative routes like the East African Pipeline or Arctic shipping lanes remain understudied.

Yemeni fishermen report that US naval patrols have disrupted traditional fishing grounds, exacerbating food insecurity in a country already facing famine. Bahraini human rights activists argue that the blockade normalises militarisation of civilian spaces, silencing dissent under 'national security' pretexts. Omani port workers describe how regional tensions have reduced tourism and trade, disproportionately affecting low-income Gulf citizens who lack alternative livelihoods.