Global food price surge linked to Iran war: systemic breakdown in fertiliser supply chains and energy-food nexus exposed

Indigenous soil management systems, such as the Andean *waru waru* raised beds or African *chitemene* slash-and-burn techniques, prioritise ecological balance over synthetic inputs, offering resilience against fertiliser shortages. These systems are often dismissed in policy circles as 'backward,' despite evidence of their long-term sustainability. The current crisis underscores the fragility of monoculture systems dependent on fossil-fuel-based inputs, which Indigenous knowledge could mitigate through diversification and soil regeneration practices.

The Green Revolution of the mid-20th century tied global food security to petrochemical fertilisers, creating a dependency that persists today. Colonial-era land grabs disrupted traditional farming systems, replacing them with export-oriented cash crops reliant on synthetic inputs. The 1973 oil crisis and subsequent fertiliser price spikes foreshadowed today's crisis, yet policymakers failed to diversify supply chains or invest in alternative systems.

In India, traditional *panchagavya* (cow-based biofertilisers) and *jeevamrutha* (microbial inoculants) are being revived as alternatives to synthetic fertilisers, with yields comparable to industrial farming. African smallholders in countries like Malawi have successfully adopted agroforestry systems that fix nitrogen naturally, reducing fertiliser dependency. However, these practices are often excluded from global policy frameworks dominated by Western agricultural science.

Scientific consensus confirms that synthetic fertiliser overuse degrades soil health, reduces biodiversity, and contributes to climate change through nitrous oxide emissions. Research on agroecology demonstrates that diversified farming systems can maintain productivity with 30-50% less synthetic inputs. The current crisis aligns with projections from the IPCC and FAO warning of systemic food system vulnerabilities due to climate change and geopolitical instability.

Artistic traditions like Persian miniature painting or Indian *warli* art often depict agricultural cycles as sacred, reflecting a spiritual connection to soil fertility. Indigenous creation stories, such as the Māori *Ranginui* and *Papatūānuku* (sky father and earth mother), frame land as a living entity deserving care, contrasting with extractive industrial models. Modern art movements, such as *land art*, critique the commodification of nature central to the current crisis.

Scenario modelling by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) suggests that a 20% reduction in synthetic fertiliser use could be achieved by 2030 through agroecological transitions, without yield loss. Climate models predict that fertiliser supply chains will face increasing disruptions due to extreme weather and geopolitical conflicts, necessitating decentralised production. The crisis could accelerate the adoption of circular economy models, where agricultural waste is repurposed as fertiliser.

Smallholder farmers in the Global South, who produce 80% of the world's food, bear the brunt of fertiliser shortages yet have least access to policy influence. Women farmers, who manage 60-80% of food production in many regions, are disproportionately affected by price spikes and supply chain breakdowns. Indigenous leaders and peasant movements, such as La Vía Campesina, have long advocated for food sovereignty but are sidelined in global policy forums.