U.S.-Iran tensions escalate as structural militarisation and geopolitical brinkmanship override diplomatic pathways in Persian Gulf

Indigenous maritime traditions in the Persian Gulf, such as the pearl diving practices of the Al Khalifa and Al Thani families, were disrupted by the discovery of oil, which transformed the region into a geopolitical chessboard. Local fishing communities in Iran and Oman have long navigated the Strait of Hormuz using celestial navigation and oral knowledge, yet these practices are erased in favor of narratives of 'strategic chokepoints.' The militarisation of these waters ignores the ecological knowledge of these communities, who have observed shifts in marine ecosystems linked to industrial pollution and climate change.

The U.S.-Iran conflict is rooted in the 1953 CIA-backed coup that overthrew Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, installing the Shah’s authoritarian regime and setting the stage for the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), during which the U.S. covertly supported Saddam Hussein while selling arms to Iran (Iran-Contra scandal), established a pattern of proxy warfare. The JCPOA’s collapse in 2018 under Trump, followed by Iran’s gradual withdrawal from its commitments, reflects a cycle of broken agreements and escalating brinkmanship.

In Latin America, similar narratives of 'threat' have been used to justify U.S. military interventions (e.g., Chile 1973, Nicaragua 1980s), where economic destabilisation and covert operations were framed as 'national security' concerns. African and Asian nations often view U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf as a form of neo-colonial control, echoing historical experiences of resource extraction under military guard. Meanwhile, in Southeast Asia, maritime disputes (e.g., South China Sea) are framed through sovereignty and historical claims, offering parallels to Iran’s insistence on control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical node in global oil transit, with 20–30% of seaborne oil passing through its narrow channel, making it a high-risk geopolitical flashpoint. Studies show that even minor disruptions (e.g., mine-laying, sabotage) can trigger global oil price spikes, as seen during the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities. Climate models predict increased extreme weather events (e.g., cyclones, heatwaves) in the region, which could exacerbate tensions by disrupting shipping and straining military logistics.

Persian poetry and Islamic art often depict the sea as a symbol of divine mystery and human vulnerability, contrasting with Western militaristic framings of the Strait of Hormuz as a 'strategic asset.' Iranian cinema (e.g., Abbas Kiarostami’s 'Taste of Cherry') explores themes of existential risk and human dignity in the face of external threats, offering a counter-narrative to the dehumanisation of geopolitical conflict. Meanwhile, Gulf Arab music and oral traditions (e.g., Bedouin poetry) frame maritime sovereignty as a matter of honor and ancestral legacy.

Scenario modelling by the RAND Corporation suggests that a U.S.-Iran military confrontation could disrupt 3.5–4.5 million barrels of oil per day, triggering a global recession and energy price shocks akin to the 1973 oil crisis. Alternative futures include a 'managed rivalry' model (e.g., Cold War-style deterrence) or a 'diplomatic reset' facilitated by non-aligned states (e.g., Oman, Qatar). Climate change may reduce the Strait’s strategic importance over time as renewable energy transitions reduce oil dependence, but this could also increase desperation among fossil fuel-dependent states.

Marginalised voices include Iranian women’s rights activists, who face dual oppression under sanctions and theocratic rule, yet are often excluded from Western media narratives that frame Iran solely as a 'threat.' Bahraini Shi’a communities, who have protested against U.S. naval bases, are systematically repressed and ignored in geopolitical analyses. Omani fishermen, whose livelihoods are threatened by naval exercises, lack representation in decision-making processes despite their intimate knowledge of the Strait’s ecological and economic realities.