Systemic risks to global gas supply: How geopolitical conflicts and fossil fuel dependency amplify energy price volatility

Indigenous communities in the Middle East and globally have long resisted fossil fuel extraction on their lands, from the Ogoni people in Nigeria to the Bedouin in the Negev. Their knowledge systems emphasize intergenerational stewardship, challenging the short-term profit-driven energy models that fuel geopolitical conflicts. However, their perspectives are systematically excluded from energy policy discussions, which prioritize corporate and state interests over ecological and cultural integrity.

The modern Middle Eastern energy crisis is rooted in the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement, which carved up the region along colonial lines to serve European energy needs. Subsequent interventions—such as the 1956 Suez Crisis, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, and the 2003 Iraq War—were driven by Western powers' desire to control oil flows. These historical patterns reveal a cycle of resource extraction, regime change, and resistance that continues to shape today's conflicts.

In contrast to the Western commodification of energy, many Global South traditions view energy as a shared commons. For example, the African concept of *ubuntu* ('I am because we are') frames energy access as a collective right, while Hindu and Buddhist traditions emphasize *ahimsa* (non-violence) in resource use. These perspectives highlight the absurdity of energy wars and offer pathways to decentralized, community-owned energy systems.

Geopolitical conflicts in energy-producing regions consistently correlate with price volatility, as seen in the 1973 oil crisis and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Studies show that fossil fuel dependency increases vulnerability to supply shocks, while renewable energy diversification reduces geopolitical risks. However, mainstream energy models often underestimate the systemic risks of fossil fuel dependence, favoring linear projections over scenario-based resilience planning.

Artists and spiritual leaders have long critiqued the dehumanization inherent in energy commodification, from Pablo Neruda's odes to natural resources to the Quranic injunction against hoarding wealth. Indigenous Australian art, such as the *Seven Sisters* Dreaming stories, encodes knowledge of sustainable resource management, while Sufi poetry often frames energy as a metaphor for divine unity. These traditions offer a counter-narrative to the militarization of energy infrastructure.

Future energy scenarios must account for the compounding risks of climate change, fossil fuel depletion, and geopolitical instability. Models like the International Energy Agency's *Net Zero by 2050* pathway suggest that rapid renewable adoption could reduce Middle Eastern conflicts by 40% by 2040. However, current policies remain locked in a 'business-as-usual' extractivist framework, ignoring the potential of degrowth and circular economies to break the cycle of resource wars.

Marginalized communities—particularly in Gaza, Yemen, and the West Bank—bear the brunt of energy conflicts, yet their voices are excluded from global policy discussions. Women in these regions, who often manage household energy needs, are disproportionately affected by price shocks but lack representation in energy governance. Grassroots movements like the *Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions* (BDS) campaign highlight how local resistance can disrupt the global energy apparatus.