7.4 Magnitude Quake in Maluku Sea Exposes Systemic Vulnerabilities in Regional Tsunami Preparedness and Infrastructure

Indigenous communities in the Maluku region possess millennia-old knowledge of seismic patterns, including the recognition of 'gempa laut' (sea earthquakes) as precursors to tsunamis, as recorded in the 18th-century manuscripts of the Sultanate of Ternate. This knowledge is systematically excluded from official warning systems, which rely solely on seismological data and ignore the role of oral histories in predicting secondary hazards like landslides. The erosion of these systems stems from colonial-era suppression and modern state centralisation, leaving coastal populations more vulnerable to cascading disasters.

The Maluku Sea has a documented history of tsunamigenic earthquakes, including a 7.8-magnitude quake in 1852 that triggered a tsunami killing hundreds, and a 1938 event that caused widespread destruction in Ternate and Halmahera. These events were often followed by periods of social upheaval, including conflicts over displaced populations and resource scarcity, revealing a pattern where disasters act as catalysts for systemic crises. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed over 200,000 in Aceh, demonstrated the catastrophic failure of modern warning systems in the absence of community-based preparedness.

In Japan, the 'tsunami tendenko' (tsunami, run uphill) principle embedded in local folklore saved thousands during the 2011 disaster, yet this cultural memory was ignored in favour of high-tech solutions. Similarly, in Vanuatu, communities use 'kastom' (custom) practices to evacuate based on natural signs, a system that reduced casualties during the 2022 tsunami. The Maluku region’s cross-cultural exchange with Melanesian and Austronesian traditions could provide a blueprint for hybrid warning systems, but these are rarely integrated into national policies.

Seismological data confirms the Maluku Sea as a high-risk zone due to the convergence of the Philippine Sea Plate and the Sunda Plate, with a recurrence interval of major quakes estimated at 50–100 years. However, the scientific community’s focus on magnitude overlooks the role of secondary triggers like underwater landslides, which can amplify tsunami waves in shallow coastal areas. Additionally, climate models project a 20–30% increase in tsunami risk for the region by 2100 due to sea-level rise, yet this is rarely incorporated into disaster risk assessments.

In Ternate, the 'Gendang Ternate' (Ternate drum) tradition was historically used to signal seismic events, with rhythms mimicking the earth’s tremors—a practice now preserved only in ritual contexts. Similarly, the 'Kawali' (water spirit) myths of the Sama-Bajau people describe the sea’s wrath as a sentient force, framing tsunamis as moral retribution for ecological harm. These artistic and spiritual frameworks offer a holistic lens to interpret disasters, yet they are dismissed as 'unscientific' in modern disaster management.

Scenario modelling by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center suggests that a 7.4-magnitude quake in the Maluku Sea could generate waves up to 5 metres in Ternate, with impacts exacerbated by high tide and coastal subsidence from groundwater extraction. Climate projections indicate that by 2050, 30% of the region’s tsunami shelters may be inundated due to sea-level rise, rendering them obsolete. Without adaptive planning, future events could trigger cascading failures in regional supply chains, particularly for critical commodities like nickel and spices.

Women in coastal fishing communities, who often hold generational knowledge of tidal patterns, are systematically excluded from disaster planning committees, despite their roles as first responders during crises. Indigenous groups like the Tobelo and Galela face displacement from tsunami-prone zones due to state-led 'development' projects, such as the expansion of nickel mines in North Halmahera. Disabled persons and elderly populations are also overlooked in evacuation protocols, as seen in the 2018 Palu tsunami, where mobility limitations led to disproportionate casualties.