Geopolitical tensions and diaspora polarization fuel violence against Iranian activists abroad: systemic analysis of diaspora fractures

Indigenous frameworks of diaspora and exile emphasize collective survival and resistance against state violence, offering a lens to understand how diaspora communities organize beyond nationalist or geopolitical binaries. Traditional models of mutual aid and communal care could mitigate the fragmentation seen in Iranian diaspora politics, but these are rarely acknowledged in Western media. The erasure of such knowledge reinforces the dominance of state-centric narratives.

The assassination of Iranian dissidents abroad has a documented history dating back to the 1979 revolution, with notable cases like the 1992 Mykonos restaurant assassinations in Berlin and the 2019 attempted murder of Iranian activist Houshang Asadi in Canada. These events reveal a pattern of transnational repression where states target dissidents in diaspora hubs like Canada, Sweden, and the U.S. The current case fits a long-standing geopolitical strategy where Iran and rival states (e.g., Saudi Arabia) use diaspora divisions to weaken opposition movements.

In non-Western diaspora contexts, political violence is often framed as a continuation of homeland conflicts, with host countries' policies exacerbating tensions. For example, Canadian immigration policies that prioritize certain political refugees over others (e.g., Kurdish vs. leftist Iranians) create hierarchies of vulnerability. Cross-cultural comparisons show how diaspora communities in Turkey or Lebanon navigate similar pressures, often through informal networks rather than state institutions.

Research on transnational repression demonstrates that authoritarian states increasingly target diaspora communities through surveillance, harassment, and violence, with Canada being a high-risk location due to its large Iranian population. Studies also highlight how diaspora polarization is fueled by algorithmic amplification of political content on social media, which deepens ideological divides. The lack of systematic data on such cases in Canada points to a gap in both academic and policy research.

Artistic and spiritual responses to diaspora violence often manifest in memorialization practices, such as poetry, music, and murals, which challenge state narratives of division. For Iranian dissidents, cultural production (e.g., films like *Taxi* by Jafar Panahi) serves as a form of resistance against erasure. These creative acts highlight the human cost of geopolitical conflicts and offer alternative modes of healing beyond state intervention.

Future scenarios for diaspora communities include increased state surveillance, further fragmentation due to algorithmic polarization, and the rise of hybrid resistance models combining digital and grassroots organizing. A plausible worst-case scenario is the normalization of extrajudicial killings in diaspora hubs, while a best-case scenario involves the formation of cross-ideological solidarity networks that prioritize human security over geopolitical loyalties.

Marginalized voices within the Iranian diaspora—such as leftists, feminists, and ethnic minorities—are often sidelined in mainstream narratives that focus on nationalist or Islamist factions. Asylum seekers face double discrimination, with host countries like Canada sometimes revictimizing them through deportation threats or surveillance. The silencing of these voices reinforces the binary of 'moderate' vs. 'radical' dissent, obscuring the diversity of opposition to the Iranian regime.