Escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran: How decades of geopolitical fragmentation and resource control fuel perpetual war cycles

Indigenous and traditional knowledge systems in the Middle East, such as the concept of *‘urf* (customary law) in tribal societies, emphasize conflict resolution through mediation and honor-based diplomacy, which are systematically sidelined in favor of militarized solutions. Iran’s reliance on local *basij* (volunteer) networks for civil defense reflects a grassroots resilience that predates modern state militaries but is rarely acknowledged in Western analyses. The erasure of these systems perpetuates a cycle where state violence is normalized, while community-based peacebuilding is dismissed as naive or ineffective.

The current conflict is a continuation of the 1953 CIA-backed coup that overthrew Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, a pivotal moment that set the stage for the 1979 Islamic Revolution and subsequent US-Iran hostilities. The US-Israel alliance’s targeting of Iranian infrastructure mirrors Cold War proxy wars, where superpowers used local proxies to avoid direct confrontation while destabilizing regions. The 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran War, fueled by Western arms sales to Saddam Hussein, established a precedent for using sanctions and military strikes to weaken Iran’s economy and political cohesion.

In Latin America, the US’s history of intervention (e.g., Chile, Nicaragua) is often cited by Iranian leaders to frame US actions as imperialist, drawing parallels between US-backed coups and modern sanctions regimes. African and Asian nations, many of which are non-aligned, frequently condemn both US-Israel strikes and Iran’s nuclear program as distractions from global inequality and climate crises. In East Asia, China and Russia’s support for Iran is framed as resistance to US hegemony, while also serving their own strategic interests in energy security and arms sales, highlighting how the conflict is embedded in a multipolar world order.

The targeting of a medical research center raises questions about the long-term health impacts of depleted uranium and other munitions used in the region, which have been linked to cancer clusters in Iraq and Gaza. Satellite imagery and open-source intelligence (OSINT) reveal patterns of civilian infrastructure destruction that align with studies on modern asymmetric warfare, where non-state actors and state militaries exploit urban environments. The lack of transparent casualty data from both sides underscores the need for independent epidemiological studies to assess the humanitarian toll, particularly on children and marginalized communities.

Iranian cinema and poetry, such as the works of Forough Farrokhzad and Abbas Kiarostami, often depict war’s psychological toll on civilians, offering a counter-narrative to state propaganda that glorifies martyrdom or retaliation. In Jewish tradition, the concept of *tikkun olam* (repairing the world) is invoked by some Israeli peace activists to critique their government’s militarism, while ultra-nationalist factions dismiss such views as traitorous. Sufi and Baha’i traditions in Iran emphasize unity and reconciliation, but these voices are systematically marginalized in favor of sectarian or nationalist rhetoric.

Scenario modeling suggests that continued strikes could lead to a regional war involving Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and Iraqi militias, with potential disruptions to global oil supplies and a spike in refugee flows to Europe. The use of AI-driven surveillance and drone warfare by Israel and the US may escalate the conflict into a new phase of automated warfare, where civilian casualties are depersonalized and justified as collateral damage. Long-term, the militarization of space (e.g., US Space Force, Iran’s satellite program) could turn the conflict into a multi-domain war, with cyberattacks and satellite jamming becoming primary tools of coercion.

Baloch, Kurdish, and Arab minorities in Iran face disproportionate violence, both from state repression and external strikes, yet their perspectives are rarely centered in global coverage. Palestinian refugees in Iran, many of whom have lived there for generations, are caught between Israeli airstrikes and Iranian state discrimination, with no clear path to citizenship or safety. Women’s rights activists in Iran, who have long challenged both the regime and foreign intervention, are systematically silenced, with their calls for peace dismissed as either pro-regime or pro-Western.